The head of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s office announced on Thursday that they granted asylum to fugitive former Polish Deputy Justice Minister Marcin Romanowski on the basis that Poland’s rule of law crisis and associated lawfare against the ruling party’s opponents make a fair trial impossible. Romanowski is accused of abusing public funds during his time in the former government. Poland summoned the Hungarian Ambassador and recalled its own from Budapest in response.
It was assessed over the summer that “The 700-Year-Old Polish-Hungarian Brotherhood Is Officially Dead At The State-To-State Level” after Poland’s ruling liberal-globalists repeatedly denigrated Hungary for its ties with Russia and thus compelled Orban to finally react to these provocations with some sharp words. Nevertheless, a rapprochement is still hypothetically possible, though only if the former (very imperfect) conservative-nationalists return to power. It’s this scenario that Orban is holding out hope for.
He wouldn’t have approved Romanowski’s asylum application if he didn’t think that it might pay off at a future date. For that to happen, the conservative-nationalists need to hold onto the presidency during next year’s election, after which they’d have to then regain control over parliament during the next elections in 2027 (unless they’re called earlier though that can’t be taken for granted). This sequence of events could foreseeably unfold during Trump’s second term in office.
Vice President-elect JD Vance slammed Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on social media at the beginning of the year before he was asked to join Trump’s ticket and had even sent a letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken prior to that about the lack of media freedom during the early days of his rule. Conservative-nationalist MEP Dominik Tarczynski then met with Trump’s team after the election to inform them of all the times that Tusk and his Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski insulted Trump in the past.
The incoming administration therefore likely won’t be on friendly terms with Tusk’s and Trump might even insult him in kind like he’s currently insulting Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The US could also go as far as threatening Poland with sanctions over its new rule of law crisis, openly preferring the conservative-nationalist opposition, and thus trying to influence the next two elections. The goal would be to help deny the liberal-globalists the presidency and then sweep them out of parliament afterwards.
This wouldn’t just be pursued out of spite or ideological solidarity, but also for the pragmatic reason that the conservative-nationalists are more pro-American than the liberal-globalists, the latter of whom align more with Germany than with the US. To be sure, the US still retains a lot of influence over Poland even under its current ruling arrangement, but it could have even more influence if the opposition returns to power. Orban doesn’t care about any of that though since he’s only concerned with bilateral relations.
So long as the liberal-globalists continue ruling Poland, ties with Hungary will remain troubled due to their ideologically driven opposition to his domestic and foreign policies, which destroyed their brotherhood at the state-to-state level. It’s only through the conservative-nationalists’ possible Trump-supported return to power that this damage can be repaired. Orban’s decision to grant asylum to Romanowski is therefore meant to keep their morale high and encourage them to keep fighting till then.
