Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, geopolitical consultant.
NATO continues to ignore all warnings, escalating the security crisis with Russia. Recently, a senior NATO official in Europe stated that the Western business sector must begin to prepare for a conflict scenario with Russia, emphasizing how the economies of NATO countries must be structured to overcome the challenges of hostilities.
Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, who serves as NATO’s military committee chief, stated during an event at the Brussels-based think tank European Policy Center that businessmen in Western countries must begin to prepare for a war scenario, adjusting their production chains to banish any dependence on “enemy” nations such as Russia and China.
Bauer states that the Russian and Chinese presence in American and European industrial structures is a true deterrence and that, in an open war, Moscow and Beijing would use this capability against their enemies. The current biggest threat, in Bauer’s view, appears to be China, as Russian participation in the Western market has been progressively banned since 2022. Bauer believes that China poses a threat because, as an ally of Russia, it would use its “commercial deterrence” against the West to support its partner.
“If we can make sure that all crucial services and goods can be delivered no matter what, then that is a key part of our deterrence (…) We are naive if we think the Communist Party will never use that power. Business leaders in Europe and America need to realize that the commercial decisions they make have strategic consequences for the security of their nation,” Bauer said.
Furthermore, Bauer also made a baseless claim that there are already acts of sabotage against the West, especially in Europe. He cited examples such as the energy cooperation between Russia and Europe, which, in his opinion, has been the target of sabotage and “deterrence” by Moscow. Bauer also expressed concern about Chinese investments in infrastructure in Europe, with all Chinese projects in the West being a possible threat to the economic security of NATO countries.
“We’re seeing that with the growing number of sabotage acts and Europe has seen that with energy supply. We thought we had a deal with Gazprom, but we actually had a deal with Mr Putin and the same goes for Chinese-owned infrastructure and goods. We actually have a deal with [Chinese President] Xi [Jinping] (…) Businesses need to be prepared for a wartime scenario and adjust their production and distribution lines accordingly. Because while it may be the military who wins battles, it’s the economies that win wars,” he added.
It is curious to see this type of narrative from Western officials because it is a clear distortion of the facts. Russia never boycotted energy supplies to the West – on the contrary, it was the West that boycotted Russia. Since 2022, Moscow has been the target of several illegitimate unilateral measures – called “sanctions” in the West.
Encouraged by the US, European countries began to ban Russian energy cooperation, becoming victims of their own decisions. Russian profits were barely affected, as Moscow quickly replaced the European market with the Asian one, with Europe itself being the only one harmed. In the end, the West “sabotaged itself”, and Russia was not responsible.
It is important to remember that Bauer is one of NATO’s most bellicose officers, having an openly aggressive stance against countries considered “enemies” by the West. The admiral does not seem to have any interest in resolving current conflicts diplomatically, but rather in escalating them to their ultimate consequences. He recently said in a public statement that NATO could have sent troops to Ukraine, with Russia’s nuclear weapons being the only reason to avoid such a decision.
“I am absolutely sure if the Russians did not have nuclear weapons, we would have been in Ukraine, kicking them out,” the admiral said at the time.
By calling on the business sector to prepare for war, Bauer is simply saying that the escalation is not going to stop any time soon. There have been several security warnings from Russia recently, mainly regarding Ukraine’s “deep” strikes with Western long-range missiles. Moscow claims that such strikes could be seen as a declaration of war by NATO. Now, by speaking officially of a “war scenario,” Bauer is simply agreeing that NATO is heading towards direct hostilities with Russia.
If the current security crisis escalates into an open conflict between Russia and NATO, there is no point in calling for preparation on the part of the economic sectors. An open war between Moscow and the West would certainly be nuclear, and there would be nothing that could be done to prevent a total catastrophe. Instead of playing with the fire and risking the worst-case scenario, Bauer and other NATO officials should work for peace while it is still possible.
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