It is imperative that we open our eyes and acknowledge the reality that, despite Alexei Navalny’s selfless dedication to his vision, even to the extent of fatally risking his life, he remains a marginal figure in Russia. Contrary to the Western portrayal of him as a competitor to Putin, Navalny’s support among the Russian population does not exceed 5%. In contrast, without any manipulation, a significant 85% of Russians express support for Putin in his stance against the West.

 

We must unfortunately comprehend that Putin is perceived as a hero and a representative of God by ordinary Russians, while the West with its human rights is viewed as an evil satanic threat. And to make matters worse, the more we attempt to pressure Russia with economic sanctions, the stronger it becomes. Hardship only feeds this beast. Pain, even just useless pain, only unites the Russian people further in support of Putin, who is seen as defending them against Western influence. This factor was greatly misunderstood by everyone who had an armed conflict with Russia. And this misunderstanding has always had a very high price tag in military history.

 

Western society often overlooks this crucial truth: pressuring the Russian people only strengthens their unity around their leader and intensifies their resistance. In my opinion, this aspect of Russia is greatly ignored in our strategies for defeating Russia. So far, the results have been quite the opposite. I believe it is high time we adjust our strategies and start to listen to those who truly understand Russia instead of relying on self-proclaimed experts in the Western media. Instead, we must explore entirely new perspectives, which will be explored in future writings.

 

Turning our attention to our situation in Estonia, where, for the past 30 years, we have neglected the 300,000 Russians living among us. These Russians are living in an ideological echo chamber, imprisoned by the toxicity of Russian media – fully absorbing content exclusively from Russia and watching Russian TV stations, resulting in the majority of Russians in Estonia wholeheartedly supporting Putin and his aggressive policies.

 

It is crucial to recognize that a full-scale Russian military invasion might not be an immediate threat, given Russia’s current capabilities. However, the true clear and present danger lies in the potential emergence of covert agents (in local slang rohelised mehikesed) suddenly appearing in eastern Estonia. In collaboration with them, it is foreseeable that out of the 300,000 Russians, twenty or thirty thousand young men can be persuaded to take to the streets to fulfill Putin’s visions of a Greater Russia.

 

Neither bunkers on our eastern border, nor planes, nor military tanks can effectively counter a hybrid war. This threat will manifest within our nation, and this fifth column of the Russian army may engage in unexpected actions.

 

Such a future scenario is considerably more plausible than a direct military invasion of a NATO member state. Understanding Putin’s strategic cunning, we must anticipate that if circumstances in Ukraine do not favor him, he may divert attention by stirring trouble in Russia’s border countries. 
/Meelis Lao/