EU Commissioner Thierry Breton responded to Zelensky’s complaints about the bloc allegedly failing to fulfill its promise to provide Ukraine with 1 million shells by reminding him that they aren’t free. While acknowledging that some were agreed to be donated, others were supposed to have been purchased directly from European industries, which Kiev can afford due to the €1.5 billion per month in financial aid that it receives from Brussels. Because of this, Breton claimed that the bloc was already above target.
To be sure, the EU Commissioner might be inflating some of the numbers that he claims have been provided to that country via both channels in order to avoid drawing attention to Russia’s victory in the “race of logistics”/“war of attrition” with NATO, but the other part of his fact-check is still important. The public has hitherto been under the false impression that the EU promised to donate these shells, but Breton finally clarified that “I said: ‘provide’ and not ‘give away for free’.”
Kiev evidently can’t afford to purchase any more and Brussels is reluctant to continue its donations, even though some countries might give additional supplies away on their own, so it’ll now have to pay the pipe one way or another in order to keep the proxy war going otherwise it might soon end. In the absence of funds, a significant portion of which was presumably stolen from Brussels’ monthly financial aid, the only recourse is for Ukraine to give its patrons control over parts of the country in exchange.
Zelensky suggested this model during the May 2022 Davos Summit when saying that “we offer a special – historically significant – model of reconstruction. When each of the partner countries or partner cities or partner companies will have the opportunity – historical one – to take patronage over a particular region of Ukraine, city, community or industry. Britain, Denmark, the European Union and other leading international actors have already chosen a specific direction for patronage in reconstruction.”
Accordingly, “The Reportedly Planned G7 Envoy To Ukraine Would Be Tasked With Carrying Out The Davos Agenda”, with their priority being to divvy up these regions, cities, communities, and industries between those of its patrons who agree to swap shells for shares in them. Zelensky might refuse to pay the piper, however, in which case he’d be gambling that they’ll either resume their donations out of desperation or that NATO will conventionally intervene to save Ukraine if it faces collapse.
It also can’t be ruled out that this is a cynical ploy designed by the EU to pressure him into resuming talks following the publication of the Wall Street Journal’s report about the alleged details of spring 2022’s draft Russian-Ukrainian peace treaty seeing as how they likely know that they can’t outproduce Moscow. The bloc might want to make a buck off of Ukraine by laundering its financial aid back into European industries or receive shares in exchange for shells ahead of the conflict’s inevitable diplomatic resolution.
Whatever the motives at play may be, the fact of the matter is that the “good guy” charade is nearing an end after Breton bluntly told Zelensky that he needs to pay the piper one way or another otherwise he’s not getting any more shells, after which the proxy war might then end but on worse terms for Kiev. The only way to keep it going is to buy more shells and/or swap shares in his country’s regions, cities, communities, and industries in exchange, but it’s unclear which route he’ll go, if any at all.
