South Asian media recently reported that India has pushed back against US meddling in Bangladesh through diplomatic channels after Washington imposed a new visa policy ahead of next January’s elections that many regard as aimed at pressuring the ruling Awami League (AL) party. AL General Secretary Obaidul Quader said that India could have done this because it’s in its own interests, not due to any malicious or partisan intent like his Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) rivals had earlier implied.
The Hindu published a detailed analysis about the geostrategic stakes at play in Bangladesh’s upcoming elections that can be read here, which draws attention to the consequences for Indian security if the BNP replaces the AL. In brief, the US might advance its stalled military agenda there that could see its armed forces playing a greater role in the Bay of Bengal. Pakistani influence might also return and risk leading to Bangladesh once again hosting anti-Indian forces. Here are some additional analyses:
* “Why’s The US Scheming To Carry Out Regime Change In Bangladesh?”
* “Growing Western Pressure On Bangladesh Might Presage Forthcoming Meddling In Northeast India”
* “The Indian Opposition Wants To Force PM Modi Into A Narrative Dilemma On Manipur”
These last three argue that America’s liberal–globalist policymaking faction wants to punish India for defying their demands to condemn and sanction Russia. They’re also motivated to undermine their pragmatic rivals’ recent policy success in getting the US to finally treat India as an equal in spite of the aforesaid and Delhi’s refusal to become Washington’s anti-Chinese proxy. For these reasons, the liberal-globalists are meddling in Bangladesh and India’s Manipur in order to provoke a regional security crisis.
Their goals are severalfold: 1) exacerbate preexisting ethno-political fault lines to show India that they can create serious difficulties for it in the neighborhood; 2) signal that these problems could be alleviated if India complies with their policy demands; 3) further pressure the ruling BJP and embolden the opposition ahead of next spring’s elections by worsening regional tensions if India doesn’t relent; 4) spark a post-election Bangladeshi crisis that spills over the border; and 5) wage a full-blown Hybrid War.
Manipur’s unrest is unlikely to ever spiral completely out of control since that state is part of India so its troubles can therefore always be dealt with by Delhi however its policymakers deem fit, but Bangladesh is an independent country where Indian influence is naturally much more limited. The US’ visa policy suggests that Washington wants to embolden the BNP to protest more ahead of the polls so as to improve the odds that it ousts the AL, which is being targeted for ideological reasons just like the BJP:
* “Russian-Bangladeshi Relations Are About To Boom If The Reports Are True”
* “US Sanctions Forced Bangladesh To De-Dollarize Its Nuclear Power Plant Deal With Russia”
* “India Is Introducing A Unique De-Dollarization Model With Bangladesh”
Both ruling parties prioritize relations with Russia, correspondingly defied US pressure upon them to dump their shared decades-long strategic partner, and are expanding the use of national currencies. These three policies are unacceptable to America’s liberal-globalists, thus explaining why they decided to target those two on superficial “democratic” bases to disguise their ideological motives. India is concerned that this faction might soon destabilize Bangladesh, hence why it’s reportedly pushing back.
If the BNP feels emboldened by the US’ new visa policy to riot with the expectation that the AL might either be reluctant to respond or have its leading officials heavily sanctioned if they do, then it could set into motion a self-sustaining cycle of political violence that quickly spirals out of control. It goes without saying that unrest in this country of nearly 170 million could easily spill across the border into Northeast India and catalyze a chain reaction of crises due to this region’s complex preexisting fault lines.
As was earlier mentioned, India’s options for averting a regional security crisis or adequately addressing one if it proves impossible to prevent are much more limited in Bangladesh than in Manipur or elsewhere in its Northeast, but therein lies the reason why it’s reportedly pushing back against the US. This is the fullest extent to which India can realistically go right now in trying to get America’s pragmatic policymaking faction to rein in their subversive liberal-globalist rivals before it’s too late.
Under no circumstances will India capitulate to the pressure put upon it through this incipient Hybrid War campaign to ditch Russia and then go to war against China at the US’ behest, nor is Bangladesh likely to ditch Russia either before abandoning its de-dollarization plans with India and Russia. Accordingly, it’s therefore expected that the liberal-globalists will continue with their destabilization campaign aimed at punishing both, including through a full-blown Hybrid War in the region if need be.
Even in the unlikely event that the AL buckles under pressure, the US would probably still push for it to be replaced by the BNP since their return to power could be a quid pro quo for the Pakistani Establishment removing former Prime Minister Imran Khan in April 2022’s post-modern coup. Islamabad is also suspected of arming Kiev despite denying it and officially abstaining from anti-Russian UNGA Resolutions, and it might have been promised a geopolitical reward for this by the US in Bangladesh.
After all, the US’ support of the semi-Islamist BNP and by association its indisputably Islamist allies from the Jamaat-e-Islami is a conspicuous change from its policy in recent years of no longer backing political Islamic parties, which de facto entered into effect after the US’ earlier falling out with Qatar and Turkiye. Though ties with those two have since been patched up, there hadn’t been any prior indications before its tacit support of the BNP a few months back that it was considering supporting such groups again.
Since there’s no evidence to suggest that this represents a larger change in policy, or rather a reversion to the previous one, it thus compellingly appears to be the case that this exception is part of a quid pro quo with Pakistan to return the BNP to power in exchange for all that its regime has done since last year. This also serves US interests too since it: 1) keeps Pakistan from flirting with another “Pivot to China”; 2) intensifies retributive pressure on India; and 3) thus optimizes the US’ regional divide-and-rule policy.
Since Bangladesh’s upcoming elections are poised to become the US’ next “trigger event” for geostrategically reshaping South Asia, it’s imperative that India offsets these cascading scenarios or preemptively mitigates the damage to its interests if that isn’t possible. India has no problem with the US per se and wants to strengthen their strategic ties, but it isn’t going to stand aside as the liberal-globalists provoke a regional security crisis. If the situation worsens, then so too might US-Indian ties.
