Buckle up, world – the rice crisis is just getting started.
As India, the world’s biggest rice exporter, wrestles with soaring food inflation and the damaging effects of the El Nino weather phenomenon on farmlands, Bloomberg reports Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government is mulling whether to restrict even more exports of the grain that is causing global tightening on an alarming scale.
The first round of export restrictions was applied to shipments of non-basmati white rice last month. Now the government is considering an export tax on parboiled rice to deter shipments abroad to ensure domestic supplies are ample to prevent a hyperinflationary spike in food prices that would ultimately spark social unrest.
People briefed on the government’s review of the possible export tax said, “There’s no certainty deliberations will lead to the implementation of duties.”
None of this should be a surprise to readers. We provided readers with enough understanding that rice, which is critical to the diets of billions of people worldwide, was headed for a shortage:
- Aug. 2022: “Situation Is Really Precarious”: World’s Largest Rice Exporter Faces Output Decline Amid Heatwave
- Sept. 2022: Top Rice-Exporter India Curbs Shipments, Adds To Fresh Food Inflation Fears
- Sept. 2022: The Stage Is Being Set For A Massive Global Rice Shortage
- May 2023: Global Rice Shortage Looms, Set To Be The Biggest In Decades
- May 2023: Thai Rice Crop In Crosshairs Of El Nino As Farmers Are Warned About Water Shortages
… and this is what happened right after India announced the first round of rice export restrictions in July:
Soon after, Thai white rice 5% hit its highest level since 2008.
Meanwhile, the latest report on global food prices from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations showed the global food index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of globally-traded food commodities, jumped the most in 18 months.
