The Pakistani Ministry of Information denied the New York Times’ report, which cited two anonymous Pakistani officials, alleging that their country is carrying out airstrikes against Yemen’s Iranian-aligned Houthi rebels and plans to continue air support for its Saudi allies’ local forces as part of the Mecca Pact. Nevertheless, Pakistan’s rapid deployment of forces to Saudi Arabia proves that it’s plunging into mission creep (and without parliamentary approval either), about which five thoughts will now be shared:
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* Pakistan Risks Sectarian Killings At Home
The Pakistani Establishment, which refers to its powerful military and intelligence agencies that are considered to have run the country since its inception one way or another, has a history of weaponizing sectarianism and radicalism for domestic and foreign purposes. They might therefore do so once again to rally the majority-Sunni public behind any direct involvement in the Saudis’ war against the Zaydi Shia Houthis at the risk of local radicals lynching members of Pakistan’s substantial Shia minority as a result.
* Its Armed Forces Ignoble Reputation As “Hired Guns” Could Be Reaffirmed
The Pakistan Armed Forces are widely perceived as “hired guns” due to their historical alignment abroad with the US, Saudi Arabia, and even recently Turkiye. Their alignment with the first two is thought to be rewarded with bailouts, which their struggling country desperately needs, while the third is thought to reward it with military (specifically drone) technology. It doesn’t matter whether the Pakistan Armed Forces’ reputation is accurate since the point is that their ignoble reputation might soon be reaffirmed.
* Pakistan Is Strategically Aligning With Israel
Despite its officials’ public support of Palestine and harsh rhetoric against Israel, which Pakistan doesn’t officially recognize, there’s no denying that their armed forces’ potentially direct involvement in the Yemeni War would align Pakistan with Israel. As a reminder, Israel also opposes the Houthis, but its prior bombing campaign failed to defeat them. Pakistan might now try to do what Israel couldn’t, which might lead to its ruling clique being perceived among some as Israeli servants, whether rightly or wrongly.
* Its Relations With Iran Might Be At Risk With All That Could Dangerously Entail
Building upon the above, any direct involvement of the Pakistan Armed Forces in the Yemeni War at scale could risk a rupture in their country’s relations with Iran, whose threat perception of Pakistan might accordingly spike as a result of perceiving it as strategically aligning with Israel. Its leadership therefore might not rule out the scenario of Pakistan participating in another round of Israeli and/or US strikes in the coming future like some outlets have reported is being considered with all that entails.
* What Other Rewards Might Pakistan Expect?
Apart from yet another US and/or Saudi bailout, Pakistan might expect geopolitical rewards from both in the scenario that its direct involvement in the Yemeni War results in the Houthis’ defeat. From the US, Pakistan might request to be treated as its top partner in the subcontinent once more like it historically was before the US began eyeing India as a counterweight of sorts to China, while it could demand air and naval bases in Yemen from the Saudis as Damocles’ swords that could sever Indo-EU trade in a crisis.
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Pakistan’s de facto military dictatorship, which was imposed after April 2022’s post-modern coup against former multipolar Prime Minister Imran Khan, appears to be seriously considering its armed forces’ large-scale direct involvement in the Yemeni War. That scenario could result in significant and far-reaching consequences, not least for the hitherto largely positive perception of Pakistan among many in the Alt-Media Community, who might then perceive it to be a joint American-Israeli puppet regime.
