Israel bombed a civilian district in Damascus on Tuesday in its latest attack against the Arab Republic. RT cited Saudi media to report that the target was “a Hezbollah official in charge of Unit 4400, which allegedly supplies the Lebanese Shia militia with weapons from Iran.” It’s rare that Israel strikes civilian areas in Syria, yet it’s increasingly begun to do so since the start of the latest Israeli-Lebanese War. Here are five takeaways from this development:
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1. Israel Is On A Regional Assassination Spree
The past month has seen the Mossad leveraging its intelligence superiority over the Resistance to assassinate dozens of their members, first with pager bombs and then with airstrikes, despite predictable collateral damage to civilians. The latest bombing of Damascus is the natural evolution of this trend and signals that Israel will go to any length, including endangering civilians, to take out its targets. The Syrian capital might soon be hit as frequently as the Lebanese one if enough targets are discovered.
2. The S-300s Were Once Again Silent
Russia’s long-delayed dispatch of the S-300s to Syria in late 2018 was hyped up as a game-changer but they’ve yet to be used even once despite hundreds of Israeli bombings since then. These analyses here, here, and here shed more light on why that is, but it’s sufficient for casual readers to know that Russia won’t allow Syria to use them since it doesn’t want to provoke Israel. The complex calculations articulated in the preceding analyses still remain in place despite Israel’s intensified bombing campaign.
3. Israel Wants Syria To Split With The Resistance
Syria is unable to defend itself from Israel, both for objective reasons due to its limited capabilities and subjective ones related to Russia’s abovementioned calculations, but it could prevent more such strikes if it splits with the Resistance by discreetly asking its military members to leave the country. That’s precisely what Israel is pressuring Syria to do by ramping up its attacks against civilian areas. Assad has thus far refused to do so, but he might reconsider if the collateral damage becomes too great.
4. Syria Is Reluctant To Retaliate
Syria has never retaliated against Israel despite being bombed hundreds of times over the past decade because it knows that Israel would disproportionately respond and possibly cripple the SAA. Assad can’t afford to have that happen since it could create an opening for terrorists to exploit for plunging his country back into chaos. He’s therefore taken every one of their blows in stride, and after seeing what Israel did to Gaza and is now doing to Beirut, he’s likely even more reluctant to retaliate than ever.
5. Terrorists Might Take Advantage Of More Strikes
If Damascus becomes the next Beirut upon Israel’s discovery of enough Resistance targets there, then the abovementioned scenario might still unfold whereby terrorists take advantage of these strikes to go on the offensive, especially if this coincides with another false flag chemical weapons provocation. In that event, Russia and Syria’s calculations might change if they conclude that their restraint has been counterproductive, which could lead to another Israeli-Syrian War with unpredictable consequences.
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The trend of Israel striking civilian areas in Syria as part of its regional assassination spree threatens to further destabilize the Arab Republic, embolden terrorists there to go on the offensive, and thus risk the outbreak of another Israeli-Syrian War depending on Damascus’ response to that worst-case scenario. This could be averted if Syria splits with the Resistance by discreetly asking its military members to leave the country, but Assad might not do that, and they might also refuse to comply even if that happens.
