Bloomberg cited unnamed US officials last week to report that they see potential cooperation with Russia in the Arctic “as a way to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing”. This followed Secretary of State Marco Rubio telling Breitbart that the US wants to prevent Russia from becoming China’s “junior partner”. These developments made some think that potential Russian-US cooperation in the Arctic would harm China’s interests. That’s not the case though for the five following reasons:
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1. The Russian-Chinese Strategic Partnership Is Mutually Beneficial
Russia and China strengthened their strategic relations over the past three years precisely because this suits both of their interests. They’ve since repeatedly reaffirmed the mutually beneficial nature of these arrangements, most recently during Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu’s trip to Beijing. It therefore isn’t possible to “drive a wedge” between them through crude fearmongering since neither is going to sacrifice this relationship solely based on what some in the US are saying about it.
2. Both Also Have The Sovereign Right To Diversify Their Partners
China shouldn’t be upset by a Russian-US economic partnership in the Arctic when it still maintains its military partnership with Ukraine despite the ongoing conflict. SIPRI’s yearly report last spring showed that 59% of Ukrainian arms exports went to China from 2019-2023 and amounted to 8.2% of Chinese imports. China has the sovereign right to militarily partner with Ukraine just like Russia has the same right to economically partner with the US in spite of their respective partnerships with one another.
3. More Partners Lead To More Competition And Then Better Deals
The motive behind multi-aligning between partners along the lines of the model that India famously pioneered is to increase competition between them in order to then receive better deals. This logic holds true with regard to China’s military multi-alignment between Russia, Ukraine, and others the same as it would hold true with regard to Russia’s economic multi-alignment in the Arctic between China, the US, and others. In each case, China and Russia just want to get the best deals possible, which is sensible.
4. It’s Normal To Prioritize Economic Ties With Those From The Same Region
The US is an Arctic state while China isn’t so it would be odd for Russia to prioritize economic ties with China in this region over the US amidst the nascent Russian–US “New Détente”. Moreover, China is the US’ systemic rival, so ruling out economic cooperation with the US there while courting such cooperation with China during this sensitive diplomatic moment could scuttle their talks. It’s normal to prioritize economic ties with those from the same region and Russia doesn’t have to explain this to anyone.
5. Reduced Russian-US Tensions In The Arctic Will Facilitate Chinese-EU Trade
And finally, if Russian-US tensions in the Arctic are ultimately reduced due to a series of mutually beneficial economic deals in this region, then this will facilitate Chines-EU trade along this trade route. After all, continued – let alone worsening – tensions could possibly lead to the US creating obstacles to maritime transit on the pretext of containing Russia, yet that’ll be much less likely if there’s a “New Détente”. China should therefore hope that Russia and the US agree to a lasting partnership in the Arctic.
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These five arguments comprehensively discredit the fearmongering about how a potential Russian-US partnership in the Arctic would harm China’s interests. To the contrary, it’s in China’s interests that they patch up their problems and consequently reduce the chances that their tensions could create obstacles to maritime transit along this trade route, thus posing challenges to Chinese-EU trade. Despite the indisputable benefits inherent in such an outcome, some might still disagree, including Chinese hawks.
