Former Bolivian President Evo Morales and incumbent Argentine President Javier Milei, who represent the far-left and far-right respectively, have both come out to officially accuse current Bolivian President Luis Arce of faking last week’s failed coup attempt. General Juan Jose Zuniga had earlier claimed that Arce asked him to stage some political drama in order to boost his popularity amidst intra-leftist tensions with Morales and a rapidly worsening economic-financial crisis, but it wasn’t initially deemed credible.
Considering that two popular figures on polar opposite sides of the political spectrum have just become strange bedfellows, however, there are now grounds for reconsidering what Zuniga claimed and wondering whether Arce did indeed orchestrate this bizarre coup attempt which had none of the usual CIA traces. After all, Morales and Milei have completely different worldviews, yet each has independently arrived at the conclusion that Zuniga was indeed telling the truth.
There might also be some political opportunism at play though seeing as how Morales has an interest in discrediting Arce as he vies for becoming the ruling leftist party’s candidate during next year’s election in spite of the legal obstacles while Milei hates all socialists no matter how moderate they may be. Nevertheless, the optics of these two both coming out and accusing Arce of staging a “self-coup” are powerful, and they’ll certainly get observers to think more deeply about this theory.
In the event that there’s any truth to it, Arce might have indeed thought that it would boost his popularity vis-à-vis Morales while also distracting from the ongoing economic-financial crisis, the latter of which he might then have thought he could spin as related to the alleged coup. The CIA has a lengthy history of meddling in Bolivia so the basis would been built after that failed regime change to accuse it of having supposedly waging economic-financial warfare on Bolivia ahead of time.
At this point, it’s impossible to tell what really happened since each side of the debate has compelling arguments in their support, though that doesn’t mean that a general forecast can’t be put forth. The consequences of Morales accusing Arce of cooking up a fake coup will exacerbate those two’s rivalry and further widen the intra-leftist divide ahead of next year’s presidential election. It’s unforeseeable that they’ll reconcile after this and their supporters will now likely become fierce foes of one another.
Depending on how tensions between them unfold in the coming future, Arce might rely on the military to crack down on Morales’ supporters, especially if they stage nationwide protests that shut down major roads and worsen the country’s already difficult economic-financial crisis. That said, it can’t be taken for granted that the historically US-aligned military would remain loyal to Arce, with the possibility existing that some senior members feel deeply offended at him allegedly orchestrating a fake coup with Zuniga.
Their institution appears weaker than ever and was humiliated after Zuniga obeyed Arce’s demands to leave the presidential palace. If they sense that he’s become more vulnerable than before in the aftermath of what just happened, largely due to the widening intra-leftist divide, then they might stage an actual coup to depose him. In that case, they might very well collude with the CIA, and it couldn’t be ruled out that they might seek Milei’s support too due to their anti-socialist ideological alignment.
As for the Argentine leader, he wants neither Arce nor Morales in power next door, plus he also has self-interested political reasons in supporting any coup against them (even if only in the aftermath by keeping trade corridors open if leftist Brazil blockades them as punishment) to distract from domestic troubles. Milei might also calculate that he’d be doing the West a major favor that they could then repay in some way that helps alleviate Argentina’s own economic-financial crisis.
With these variables in mind, there are reasons to expect that Bolivia will remain mired in a multisided crisis that’s poised to intensify as the country approaches next year’s presidential election. Arce will have to deal with an almost literally rebellious Morales together with managing the military’s mistrust, not to mention ensuring that the economic-financial crisis doesn’t spiral out of control. Each of these tasks is extremely difficult on their own, let alone all together, and he might not be able to pull it off.
