GUR chief Kirill Budanov fearmongered earlier this week about the “worst-case scenario” of Russia invading Poland and then rest of the former Warsaw Pact countries if Ukraine loses the current conflict. His prediction contradicted what Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria the day prior about how the US reaffirmed that it would rush to his country’s aid if it was attacked by Russia. A possible explanation for Budanov’s curious comments is that they’re a response to the latest polls.
Almost 60% of Poles believe that Ukraine must “seek peace as soon as possible” while slightly more than half are against continued military aid to Ukraine (presumably even as a loan like Warsaw said last fall would be the way forward). These views influenced the ruling coalition’s decision to rule out dispatching peacekeepers to Ukraine, which imperils European warmongers’ plans as explained here since Poland now has NATO’s third-largest military whose participation is pivotal to the success of any such mission.
Budanov knows this and therefore might have thought that fearmongering about a Russian invasion of Poland could shift Polish opinion in support of dispatching peacekeepers, perhaps after May’s presidential election like populist-nationalist Confederation’s candidate Slawomir Mentzen warned. In connection with that, he recently tabled a resolution at the Sejm prohibiting the deployment of Polish troops to Ukraine, but the ruling coalition suspiciously ensured that it was defeated.
Mayor of Lvov Andrey Sadovoy also speculated that Poland’s approach towards dispatching peacekeepers to Ukraine might change after the presidential election, though that might of course be dependent on the outcome, particularly whether or not the ruling coalition’s candidate wins. If the (very imperfect) conservative opposition’s one bests him, such as with the support of Confederation in the second round per a deal ahead of fall 2027’s next parliamentary elections, then it might not happen.
Sadovoy is also angry with Mentzen after the latter recorded a video during his recent trip to Lvov where he stood in front of a Bandera statue and condemned him as a terrorist. Mentzen also referenced the revived Volhynia Genocide dispute that’s toxified their ties since last fall. Sadovoy responded by taunting Mentzen to record a video at the Donbass frontline. He also questioned whether or not Mentzen is even able to enter Ukraine in a hint that he might soon be banned or even placed on its infamous kill list.
Through these two moves, Mentzen placed himself at the center of the two most sensitive issues at the heart of the newly troubled Polish-Ukrainian partnership, peacekeepers and Volhynia. How this relates to Budanov’s fearmongering about a Russian invasion of Poland is that they could counteract whatever effect the GUR chief’s words might have on shifting public opinion and therefore ruin his plans. The chances of that happening would spike if Mentzen is banned from Ukraine or placed on its kill list.
Nevertheless, the outcome of the next presidential election might be what ultimately determines whether or not Poland dispatches peacekeepers to Ukraine like Budanov clearly wants, hence why it can’t be concluded with full certainty that the ruling coalition’s decision to rule this out is sincere. After all, they banded together to ensure that Mentzen’s resolution on prohibiting the deployment of Polish troops to Ukraine was defeated, which implies that they might change their mind if their candidate wins.
