Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that “Biden Set to Snub Modi’s Invitation to Visit India in January”, which would bode ill for bilateral ties if it comes to pass. They published their piece as the FBI chief was visiting that country to discuss the Justice Department’s charges against an unnamed Indian official and an Indian drug trafficker over their alleged attempt to assassinate a Delhi-designated terrorist-separatist with dual American citizenship. The timing suggests that he was the one who conveyed this message.
The American Ambassador to India was the first to reveal in late September that Prime Minister Modi invited Biden to attend January’s Republic Day celebrations as his guest of honor during their meeting at that month’s G20 Summit in Delhi. He disclosed this detail just days after Trudeau accused India of assassinating a similarly designated individual with dual Canadian citizenship in June. It later emerged that the US had already discussed its own such case with India by then that eventually led to charges.
The public wasn’t aware of that at the time, though, which is why there were high hopes that Biden would accept Prime Minister Modi’s invitation. It’s unclear, however, whether the American Ambassador was briefed on those two’s discrete discussions over the allegedly attempted assassination. If he wasn’t, then that means that he only innocently shared details about this invitation, but his motives would be questionable if he was already aware of this when he did so.
Regarding the first scenario, it’s possible that he was left out of the loop due to how sensitive the issue is, which is why it might have only been discussed by much higher-level senior officials in each country’s judicial and security establishments. As for the second, he might either have not thought that this scandal would become public and/or lead to charges, or he expected such and thus disclosed this detail in order to embarrass India once Biden felt pressured by the aforesaid to decline the invitation.
No matter which version of events one subscribes to, diplomats much higher than the American Ambassador should have conveyed to India long ago that Biden is unable to accept Prime Minister Modi’s invitation due to this scandal, especially after the charges were revealed in late November. Instead, no such signal was sent up until the FBI chief’s visit on Tuesday, which Wall Street Journal columnist Sadanand Dhume said had put India in a very difficult position:
“If true this was poorly handled by the Biden administration. By making the Indian invitation public the U.S. put New Delhi in a bind—it could not invite someone else while it awaited Biden’s response. Now, with barely six weeks to go, India will have to scramble for an alternative, who will accept being seen as a second choice. Clumsy public diplomacy by the U.S. The drama could have been avoided with some elementary discretion and finesse.”
Moreover, Biden’s reportedly planned snubbing of Prime Minister Modi will also necessitate rescheduling the Quad Summit that was planned to take place during his trip, which Bloomberg said is now being considered for some time later in 2024. It’s possible that this event might have to take place online instead of in-person as originally intended, however, seeing as how Bloomberg reported that Biden already has other international trips scheduled plus domestic ones due to it being an election year.
On the topic of elections, India will be going to the polls in spring, during which time meddling by America’s liberal–globalist policymaking faction is expected to increase due to their ideologically driven desire to punish Prime Minister Modi for his sovereign domestic and international policies. The Washington Post’s latest information provocation that was timed to coincide with the FBI chief’s visit, which alleged that India is meddling in US affairs and not the inverse, is likely a taste of what’s to come.
Bilateral ties will therefore become further strained after Biden’s reportedly planned snubbing of Prime Minister Modi next month, the ramping up of liberal-globalist information warfare against India ahead of spring’s elections, and the Justice Department’s impending trial against those two Indian suspects. It’s also important to note that the US Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence is in India until 15 December to “enforce sanctions on Russia” among other purposes.
As Indo-US ties come under such stress, it’s notable that Sino-US ties are gradually improving as a result of those two’s incipient thaw brought about by their leader’s meeting in San Francisco last month. This analysis here from late November argued that Indo-US ties are conceptualized by America’s liberal-globalist policymaking faction as a bargaining chip in Sino-US ones, and subsequent events have extended credence to that observation. If this trend continues, then the implications can be far-reaching.
Any meaningful rapprochement in Sino-US relations would be balanced by India doubling down on the Russian dimension of its multi–alignment policy, the dynamics of which could inadvertently make it more difficult for India and the US to preserve their hard-earned gains. The next year is therefore shaping up to be a pivotal one for Indo-US ties wherein they’ll either get back onto the strategic track or return to the era of “frenemy” relations. India wants the former, but it’s ultimately the US’ choice.
