The Full Story
The news broke last Friday that Belarus had sentenced a German mercenary to death on 24 June after initially detaining him in November. It was first reported by the Belarusian “human rights” organization “Viasna”, which has a controversial history. President Aleksandr Lukashenko accused it in 2021 of being a front for foreign interests, its founder was jointly awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2022, and then his organization was banned as extremist last August.
CNN wrote that Rico Krieger “was charged under six articles of the Criminal Code of Belarus, according to Viasna, including ‘mercenary activity,’ ‘agent activity,’ an ‘act of terrorism,’ the ‘creation of an extremist formation,’ ‘intentional disrepair of a vehicle or communication lines,’ and ‘illegal actions in relation to firearms, ammunition and explosives.’..[He] was found guilty of ‘arranging an explosion in order to influence decision-making by authorities, intimidate the population, [and] destabilize public order.’”
The BBC added in their own report on this subject that “Viasna suggested that the charges facing Mr Krieger could stem from his alleged involvement with the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment, a group of Belarusian citizens who volunteered to fight Russian soldiers in Ukraine. The BBC cannot independently verify this. The regiment is named after the Belarusian-Polish writer, journalist and lawyer, who was executed in 1864 for leading a revolt against Russia.”
Both Mainstream Media outlets informed their audience that Krieger worked as an Armed Special Security Officer at the US Embassy in Berlin, but both used a version of his LinkedIn profile picture that suspiciously edited out the Ukrainian flag that he included behind himself. Publicly financed Belarusian media outlet BelTA then reported on Saturday that “Belarus MFA confirms news of German national’s sentence, stays in contact with German diplomats” but didn’t share any specific details.
Belarus Plays It Cool
All that they wrote of relevance to Krieger’s case about that “The media, citing the German Federal Foreign Office, reported that a German national had been sentenced to death in Belarus on charges related to terrorism and mercenary activity.” It was a wise choice not to make a spectacle out of sentencing him to death since Minsk probably wants to use him as a bargaining chip for getting Berlin to put pressure on Warsaw to de-escalate their latest border tensions.
To be clear, instrumentalizing this case doesn’t in any way imply that the charges are fraudulent since there are reasons to suspect that he’s guilty as charged. Krieger might have exploited his new job as a medic to disguise his role in the “Kastus Kalinouski Regiment”, which “Viasna” reported that he was accused of helping to form in March 2022. His expression of support for Ukraine on his LinkedIn page proves that he didn’t have politically friendly intentions for traveling to Belarus when he was captured.
Having clarified that, it’s now time to explain what it is that Belarus wants and how it’s seeking to obtain that by sentencing Krieger to death for his crimes. The media was mum about this until “Viasna” spilled the beans on Friday, which suggests that both Belarus and Germany wanted to keep everything under wraps for as long as they could. The reason why Germany is thought to be in on this is because BelTA cited the Foreign Ministry spokesman as claiming that it was “provided full consular access” to him.
The spokesman also said that “At the request of the German Federal Foreign Office, Belarus has put forward proposals for the existing scenarios of the situation. The foreign ministries of the two countries are holding consultations on the matter.” Absent credible leaks, it can only be speculated what Belarus proposed, but it wouldn’t be surprising if they want Germany to pressure Poland to de-escalate their latest border tensions, which this analysis here from earlier in the month covered in detail.
Escalating Polish-Belarusian Border Tensions
To summarize for the reader’s convenience, Belarus is at the very least turning a blind eye towards civilizationally dissimilar immigrants illegally crossing the Polish border, which is an asymmetrical response to Warsaw’s support of summer 2020’s Color Revolution and hosting of anti-government militants. Poland has in turn taken advantage of that to build more border fortifications and deploy more troops to the frontier in ways that go far beyond simply protecting itself from illegal immigrants.
The Polish Chief of General Staff also ominously declared earlier this month that his country “need[s] to prepare our forces for full-scale conflict, not an asymmetric-type conflict”, which was interpreted in Minsk and Moscow as more saber-rattling from Warsaw. This analysis here from late June enumerates seven others from the past year detailing the cross-border threats that Belarus faces from the “Lublin Triangle” states of Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine in order to place this latest development into context.
Meanwhile, this one here from earlier in the spring describes the ways in which Poland’s new liberal–globalist government has comprehensively subordinated itself to Germany, which opposition leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski believes pulls Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s strings. The previously mentioned piece from earlier this month about their border tensions importantly enumerates one about how “Germany Is Preparing To Assume Partial Responsibility For Poland’s Eastern Border Security”.
That last move was foreseeable since last November when Germany first proposed the “military Schengen” that was then agreed to between it, Poland, and the Netherlands in late January. It therefore made perfect sense for Belarus to be discreet about Krieger’s detention from sometime that same month with a view towards having Germany pressure Poland into de-escalating their border tensions after he was finally sentenced. Germany de facto controls Poland now so it’s not a far-fetched scenario.
Russian Interests In Staying Silent
By eschewing a spectacle through the state’s reluctance to reveal the specific details of his case, Belarus can thus “save face” in the event that he’s returned to Germany, albeit likely on the condition that Poland is first successfully coerced into tangibly de-escalating their border tensions. If everyone knew everything about his crimes, then there might be public pressure inside Belarus and its ally Russia to go through with his execution, not send him back to Germany after all that he did against those two.
The Kremlin wasn’t left in the dark about Lukashenko’s plans since he presumably informed his counterpart about this keeping in mind their iron-clad alliance that’s grown so strong over the past year that Russia has even deployed tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus and just completed relevant exercises. Candidly speaking, the “greater good” is advanced by having Belarus get Germany to pressure Poland into de-escalating their border tensions, not throwing away this opportunity by executing Krieger.
That’s why Russia also stayed silent about his detention since it didn’t want to spoil the chance for Germany relieving Polish pressure along its western front, but then the foreign-backed extremist organization “Viasna” spilled the beans, perhaps at someone’s bidding in order to ruin these talks. After all, he was sentenced almost a month ago but it was only on Friday that they somehow found out about this, thus raising suspicions that a fourth – if not a fifth – party is now involved.
The Last Realistic Chance To Prevent A New Iron Curtain
The most realistic fourth party is Poland, who Germany might have already been pressuring behind the scenes as was explained, while the fifth could be its American ally who might have either found out about this directly from Warsaw or through its own intelligence agencies’ espionage against the EU. Regardless of whoever was responsible, they intended to complicate the chances of a secret German-Belarusian deal over Krieger, hence why they leaked details about his case to “Viasna” to then pass on.
Belarus can’t be faulted for handling this behind closed doors since that’s par for the course when it comes to most national security trials anywhere across the world, but Westerners might wonder why Germany didn’t say a peep about this beforehand considering that their citizen was sentenced to death. The EU’s de facto leader is strongly against that form of punishment, which it regards as a violation of convicted criminals’ “human rights”, yet it still engaged in a “conspiracy of silence” with Belarus over this.
To be sure, it might falsely claim that Belarus lied about “provid[ing] full consular access” to him, but it’s unclear whether many will believe that lie. All that’s known for sure is that this is shaping up to be a major story across next week’s news cycle, which will make it more difficult for Germany to do whatever it is that Belarus demanded in exchange for not executing Krieger, presumably pressuring Poland to de-escalate their border tensions. If these talks fail, then a new Iron Curtain is likely inevitable.
