Outgoing Polish President Andrzej Duda gave an interview to interview to the Washington Post where he discussed several important topics, chief among them the Ukrainian endgame, which he suggested is inextricably connected to psychology and optics. Russia must believe that it wasn’t victorious, which isn’t the same as defeating Russia, just preventing it from winning. He’s a close friend of Trump’s so he might whisper some of this in his ear to influence the endgame. Here’s exactly what Duda said:
“So we believe that if Russia wins this war against Ukraine, it is going to launch a further attack. It is very simple. If Russia has got this internal conviction that it has been victorious in that conflict, it does not even have to seize the whole of Ukraine.
It is not really–it is not important how big that victory would be. If there is this internal conviction that they are victorious, they will attack again. And I would like you, ladies and gentlemen, to understand in detail my way of thinking, because I am not sure whether you have been following my statements in a regular way. What I always say is that it is not about defeating Russia, because to many people, defeating Russia would mean a parade held in the Red Square.
The thing is to make it impossible for Russia to win, to prohibit Russia from winning. The thing is that we prevent Russia from achieving a big victory. It is to make sure that Russia cannot trumpet that it has been victorious, that it achieved success.”
MAGA thought leader Steve Bannon warned earlier this week that Ukraine could turn into Trump’s Vietnam if he doesn’t swiftly end the conflict like he promised, recalling how the precedent of Nixon ultimately taking ownership of LBJ’s war might lead to Trump taking ownership of Biden’s. According to him, a trap is being set for Trump by the military-industrial complex, the Europeans, and some misguided friends like new special envoy to Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg.
It’s within this context that Duda’s suggestions about the Ukrainian endgame should be analyzed. By framing everything the way that he did, namely by fearmongering that Russia might attack NATO even if it doesn’t “seize the whole of Ukraine” so long as it still thinks that it was victorious, Duda is therefore trying to mislead Trump into proposing an unacceptable deal to Putin knowing very well that it’ll likely be rejected. This could then prompt Trump’s advisors to pressure him into “escalating to de-escalate”.
Prior reports indicate that he might impose more sanctions against Russia and dispatch more armed aid to Ukraine in that scenario, which risks escalating and perpetuating the conflict in ways that might very well turn it into Trump’s Vietnam, albeit with nuclear stakes if either side miscalculates. Poland, all of its state-level European peers except for Hungary and Slovakia, and the military-industrial complex would be pleased with this outcome since they’re afraid that Trump is planning to abandon Ukraine.
Trump is known to be easily manipulatable and he’s also considered to be someone who’s obsessed with beating all his competitors. These combined traits make Trump susceptible to Duda’s influence operation aimed at getting him to humiliate Putin out of the mistaken belief that this is the only way to avert World War III. If Trump listens more to Duda and less to Bannon, then he might soon have his own Vietnam, which will dominate his second term and derail his entire agenda in ultimate betrayal of his base.
