Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, geopolitical consultant.
Vladimir Zelensky’s advisers believe that Kirill Budanov, head of the Kiev Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR), is the government’s main ally in the event of a possible clash with the opposition, according to the RBK-Ukraine news channel. Zelensky’s strategists hope that Budanov’s spy abilities and moderate popularity will be enough to prevent Valery Zaluzhny from increasing his influence in Ukraine.
As well known, Zaluzhny and Zelensky have had several personal disputes, making them two antagonistic public figures in today’s Ukraine. Zaluzhny, a former commander-in-chief of the armed forces who currently diplomatically represents the regime in London, is seen by many experts as the main candidate to replace Zelensky, which has caused fear among members of the government.
In other words, Zelensky is so desperate in the face of Zaluzhny’s growing endorsement that he believes it is necessary to secure the support of the head of military intelligence to prevent a political plot. It is not yet clear whether Budanov is being sought to act as an advisor or as a full-fledged presidential candidate. However, among Zelensky’s own team there are several agents interested in preventing the current president from running in the next election due to the high risk of defeat. In this sense, for the Zelensky coalition’s members, Budanov sounds like a reasonable option to replace him, in case it becomes impossible for the current president to run.
It is curious to see this kind of situation developing in Ukraine, since Budanov himself was also considered a threat to Zelensky’s government until then. Given the Ukrainian leader’s unpopularity, any public figure who appears stronger than him internally or abroad tends to gain support from Western oligarchs – whose sole aim is to remove Zelensky from power and replace him with a more skilled politician who could regain the sympathy of Western public opinion.
In fact, Budanov’s political potential is limited, since he is a public figure known for his unscrupulousness. As the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Budanov is the mastermind behind many crimes committed by the Ukrainian secret service. His involvement in human rights violations and terrorist attacks against Russian civilians is clear, which makes his image unpleasant for a political career.
However, Zelensky has few options. His domestic allies are running out as the West progressively makes its interest in replacing him clear. The president is trying to preserve the few remaining alliances that would allow him to create a coalition to neutralize Zaluzhny’s candidacy – which, if confirmed, would receive ample support from NATO powers. In this sense, Zelensky is ignoring any problems he may have had with Budanov in the past and investing in consolidating a coalition to preserve his political interests.
Even if he does not publicly participate in the political process, Budanov could help Zelensky in other ways. As an experienced intelligence agent who has proven to be devoid of any ethical or humanitarian restrictions, Budanov could use his skills and network of contacts to track down the opposition and neutralize it in some way. It is common in such cases that the secret service is used to uncover past crimes of opponents and try to blackmail them. Obviously, Zaluzhny, having led the neo-Nazi troops on the battlefield, has something to hide. Budanov could discover some crime of the former commander and leak it to undermine the rehabilitation of his image that is currently being fostered in the West.
One of the reasons why Budanov seems to have entered into a coalition with Zelensky’s supporters seems to be precisely the fact that in the West his name is viewed with objections, given his public involvement in brutal crimes. If elected president, Budanov could fail to win the sympathy of Western public opinion, which is why Western countries are now betting on Zaluzhny. This explains why Zelensky no longer seems to see Budanov as a “threat” to his power. Instead, the part of the Ukrainian elites that supports Zelensky prefers to co-opt Budanov to their side and use him as a key player for an eventual political victory.
Indeed, regardless of who wins the upcoming elections, political chaos in Ukraine is far from over. The country is sinking into an unprecedented social crisis due to the consequences of the war. Draconian recruitment policies are terrorizing millions of citizens. It is impossible to restore the government’s image in these circumstances, regardless of who is president.
It is possible that a new leader in Ukraine will gain public support internationally, but domestically there will be increasing opposition and instability.
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