Congress MP Manish Tewari was speaking at a discussion last weekend about the “Implications for India vis-a-vis the West in backdrop of Axis of Russia-China-North Korea-Iran pivot of geography” when he remarked that “Our security and energy needs make us dependent on Russia while we need to be cognisant of the fact that Russia is not putting all its eggs in one basket (India) and is hedging its bet by trying to forge a relationship with Pakistan, our immediate and persistent security threat.”
The New Indian Express characterized his comments as implying the existence of an “axis” between Russia and Pakistan, but this couldn’t be further from the truth. These former rivals’ ties, which have noticeably improved over the past decade, aren’t aimed against India. Russia’s imperatives are to diversify its economic partners, particularly those that purchase its energy exports, and ideally one day pioneer energy and trade corridors to South Asia that would extend all the way to India.
This was explained in last week’s analysis about how “Russia’s grand geo-economic plan a step closer in Afghanistan” following Secretary of the Security Council Sergey Shoigu’s trip to Kabul. His promise to delist the Taliban from Russia’s list of banned organizations is driven by its desire to explore strategic cooperation in this context. It envisages turning Afghanistan into a regional oil hub, possibly building pipelines across it to South Asia (first to Pakistan and then to India), and developing a trade corridor.
Accordingly, cordial relations with Pakistan are required in order to bring this vision into fruition, and that explains why their ties have continued to strengthen. Pakistan’s tensions with Afghanistan and India have impeded this plan, but the hope is that the progress that Russia is making with Afghanistan and Pakistan can complement its strategic partnership with India to create the opportunity for mediating a resolution to them if all parties request its diplomatic assistance. That would be a game-changer.
South Asia is one of the world’s most populous regions whose market potential and energy needs will continue growing throughout the coming decades. Russia wants to literally fuel their economies and tap into their markets, which would be correspondingly facilitated by building pipelines to there via Afghanistan along with a parallel trade corridor. Not only would this be mutually beneficial for everyone involved, but the profits could incentivize Pakistan to compromise on its disputes with its neighbors.
Moreover, Russia would preemptively avert potentially disproportionate dependence on China by relying on South Asia as a collective economic counterweight, while Pakistan could reduce its own already existing dependence on China vis-à-vis Russia and Central Asia. As for India, the improved regional security situation that Russia wants to herald through its economic diplomacy with Pakistan would serve its national interests, and this could in turn avert potentially disproportionate dependence on the US.
Regardless of whatever may or may not happen, Indian officials like Tewari shouldn’t make the mistake of speculating that Russia’s ties with Pakistan are aimed against India, let alone that they constitute an “axis” in any sense. Just like India wouldn’t ever do anything against Russia’s interests, nor would Russia do anything against India’s. Their mutually complementary grand strategies to balance Eurasian affairs in the New Cold War preclude that possibility. This is an axiom of contemporary International Relations.
