Russian pranksters Vovan and Lexus recently published a nearly half-hour-long recording of their video call with Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski, which his spokesman said might have been conducted in March, in which they successfully impersonated former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. What follows is a summary of what Poland’s top diplomat revealed and a brief analysis of what it all means. He began by expressing surprise at how long it took Ukraine to lower its mobilization age.
This segued into him reaffirming that Poland will encourage Ukrainian citizens in its territory to defend their fatherland, including by training some of them, but he clarified that it can only deport lawbreakers at the moment. Ukraine would thus have to issue an arrest warrant if it wanted Poland to extradite a particular citizen. Sikorski’s view is that draft-dodgers shouldn’t receive social benefits, though the whole EU has to agree in order for these people not to move around searching for the best deal.
The conversation then moved along to a few words about corruption, which Sikorski said is the shortest and fastest way for Ukraine to lose Western support if sensational allegations are confirmed. He believes that the greatest problem for it right now though is Russia’s attacks against its electricity grid, which he heard had destroyed approximately 70% of its production capacity. If this worsens, then large parts of Ukraine will become inhabitable and lead to a new wave of refugees, which worries Poland.
On the subject of peace, Sikorski advised the prankster who he thought was Poroshenko not to get into a formula like the Minsk Accords where Ukraine loses control as he phrased it, mentioning that this is possible if Zelensky tries to involve more countries in his plans. Putin isn’t susceptible to moral pressure, and some of those that Zelensky is courting like South Africa, India, and Brazil don’t care about Ukraine’s borders. They just want the conflict to end and are perfectly happy for Ukraine to pay the price.
Although Ukrainian and US interests aren’t identical according to Sikorski, the US knows that its credibility is at stake so he doesn’t expect it to sell Ukraine down the river because that would affect the US’ credibility vis-à-vis all American allies. Trump’s people have told Sikorski that he’ll threaten Putin with escalation if he wins in order to get a better deal, but Sikorski sounded a bit skeptical. In any case, he said that everything depends on how long Ukraine can sustain the conflict.
He also advised the fake Poroshenko that his country mustn’t lose Odessa or let Russia come closer to the Dnieper, but he also said that Poland has no interest in sending troops to Ukraine unless they’re UN peacekeepers. Tusk wouldn’t approve of it, plus Sikorski said that it’s already very controversial to even discuss the scenario of Poland intercepting Russian missiles over Ukraine, which would mean joining the conflict. These calculations could change, however, if the front started to collapse.
Another fact inhibiting the possibility of a conventional Polish intervention in Ukraine is Warsaw’s unwillingness to confirm so-called “Russian propaganda” about its alleged plans in this regard. According to Sikorski, both of Poland’s main political parties are on the same page about Ukraine, so no sudden policy changes are expected no matter what might happen on the home front. After clarifying that, he then transitioned to discussing the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO, which he doesn’t think is likely.
He believes that Western Europe is using that scenario as a bargaining chip with Russia, which he doesn’t think is a bad thing per se since it they’re hinting to Russia that Ukraine won’t join the bloc if Russia withdraws. If it doesn’t, then the rest of Ukraine could join, but none of them have the willingness to cross the absolute red line of going to war with Russia over this issue. Even Macron’s rhetoric is insincere and aimed at making Putin wonder what the West will do, the strategy of which Sikorski supports.
As for Ukraine joining the EU, Sikorski was adamant that it’ll happen in stages and is impossible to do right away, perhaps taking up to a decade in total. He also advised the fake Poroshenko not to listen to anyone who tells him otherwise since they only want to further delay this process. The hardest chapter to negotiate will be agriculture, he warned, since it’ll force a complete revision of the bloc’s common agricultural policy that’ll become a very difficult problem for its member states.
On that topic, he also mentioned that Poland was very displeased with Zelensky wanting to meet with Tusk or the Agricultural Minister over this year’s farmers’ dispute, which Sikorski condemned as a propaganda stunt. Wrapping up this subject, Sikorski added that the balance of power inside the EU would change if Ukraine joined since it and Poland would together more votes and MEPs than Germany. That’s something that few might have thought about and which more should reflect on.
The last three significant things that he talked about with the fake Poroshenko was the possibility of Poland hosting US nukes, Nord Stream II, and regime change in Belarus. Regarding the first, he clarified that Poland wouldn’t be able to use them and would just deliver them to US jets, similar to a postman delivering a $1 million check to someone else. It wouldn’t be theirs, and in fact, it might even cause some political problems if it leads to the formation of troublesome peace movements like in Germany.
Duda is only talking about this because he feels sidelined during his last year in office and wants to attract attention to himself, or so Sikorski speculated. He also doesn’t believe that Poland hosting nukes would scare Putin since it doesn’t really matter whether they’re there or in neighboring Germany. He was then asked about the Nord Stream II attack, praised whoever did it, and claimed that the US had advance knowledge but didn’t stop it.
Drawing to a close, he advised the Belarusian opposition against acting prematurely since he claimed that the government is so repressive that they can’t hope to overthrow it. Instead, they should wait until political changes occur in Russia, which he said could precede such changes in Belarus. They’ll get crushed if they act now and need to wait for the right moment instead. That’s sensible enough but contradicts expectations about Poland wanting to promote regime change there right away.
Reflecting on everything, a few points stand out the most: Ukrainian corruption could lead to an end of EU support; there’s no willingness in Poland to conventionally intervene there unless perhaps the front collapses; NATO and EU membership are unlikely; Poland doesn’t want US nukes; and it’s not serious about overthrowing Lukashenko right now. Observers should remember that these are the official assessments of Poland’s Foreign Minister shared in discretion with what he thought was a close friend.
They therefore shouldn’t be dismissed, and it might even be due to the sensitivity of what they revealed that the pranksters didn’t publish their video of him until sometime later. Although they deny any connections to Russia’s special services, it’s difficult to imagine these patriots sitting on such a goldmine of information without trying to pass it along to them somehow or another. Hopefully the government became aware of what Sikorski revealed and formulated their policies to take maximum advantage of it.
