Ukraine confirmed last week that it lost its first F-16, which it claims simply crashed while on a mission, even though an MP alleged that it was shot down by a Patriot missile in a case of friendly fire. Others don’t believe either of these explanations and speculated that Russia bombed its hangar. Whatever the truth may be, this is a major loss of face for Ukraine after it hyped the F-16s up as a game-changer even though the US Air Force chief himself cautioned in spring 2023 not to have such expectations.
The reason why it still did so anyhow was for boosting morale at home and abroad, but this was doomed to backfire since there was never any credible basis for expecting the F-16s to make much of a difference. Popular expectations were that they’d be used to bomb Crimea or other parts of the territory that Ukraine claims as its own, yet Kiev’s official version of events is that it simply crashed during a mission shooting down Russian drones and missiles.
Few who eagerly waited for Ukraine to finally field the F-16s expected that they’d be put to use for air defense, let alone in a such dangerous conditions where projectiles are falling while Patriots are being fired into the sky to intercept them. It’s for this reason why the earlier mentioned alternative theory of it being hit by friendly fire is plausible since it’s extremely difficult to operate in such conditions. Ukraine is also known for its poor tactics so it’s believable that the pilot might have been ordered on this mission.
Considering how bad the official and alternative Ukrainian theories of this crash make Kiev look, it might have been better to claim it was bombed by Russia in its hangar even if that’s not what really happened, but that might have spooked the West into thinking the F-16s are sitting ducks. Ukraine might have thus thought that this would harm morale more than admitting to having made a lethal error of judgement in sending the pilot into those dangerous conditions just to shoot down a few missiles and drones.
To be clear, no conclusive evidence has yet to emerge indicating which of the three working hypotheses is the most accurate, but all of them are still embarrassing for Ukraine. In the order that they were presented, the pilot either made an error after being improperly trained per the shortened program they were in; the same might have occurred with regards to the Patriot operator; or Ukraine’s operational security for this program isn’t anywhere near as airtight as was thought and was penetrated by Russia.
No matter what happened, Russia benefits in the soft power sense, though it’s premature to predict whether this fiasco will adversely affect the Western elite’s plans to continue arming Kiev. The Wall Street Journal reported that the US won’t send contractors to service the F-16s since they’d be a high-value target, however, thus suggesting that they suspect that it might have been hit in its hangar. If this policy remains, then the F-16s won’t get as much action as expected, thus further reducing their impact.
