Czech President Petr Pavel, who previously served as the Chair of the NATO Military Committee and is among the bloc’s staunchest anti-Russian hawks, was recently interviewed about the Ukrainian Conflict. Some of what he said has already made headlines, such as his defense of the Nord Stream bombing and proposal to let Ukraine join NATO without first regaining control of its pre-2014 borders, but other parts of his interview that weren’t widely reported are pretty important too. Here are the top five takeaways:
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* Pipelines, And by Extension Other Infrastructure, Are Legitimate Targets
Pavel’s defense of the Nord Stream bombing was predicated on his explicitly stated view that “Product pipelines have always been and will be a target because they have the potential to influence the conflict in one direction or another.” Extrapolating from this, it can therefore be said that suspected acts of Russian sabotage in Europe against military-industrial and other targets are also legitimate for that same reason related to influencing the course of the conflict, though the West will never acknowledge this.
* Unspecified Russian Partners Are Allegedly Arming Ukraine In Secret
It was earlier reported that Pakistan and Sudan, whose relations with Russia could become strategic if an energy and naval base deal are respectively clinched, are among the countries that are allegedly arming Ukraine in secret. Although Pavel didn’t namedrop them, he still claimed that some Russian partners are indeed involved in this trade but don’t want to ruin their ties, which is why he rejected his interlocutor’s request to release more information about the ammo that Czechia is procuring from abroad for Ukraine.
* The Ukrainian Conflict Might Continue Raging For A Few More Years
Pavel is of the opinion that the Ukrainian Conflict won’t end for at least a few more years when both sides supposedly realize that neither is capable of achieving their maximum objectives. The US, the EU, and China could then make significant contributions to the peace process. This reveals that the West expects a prolonged conflict, the peace process will be internationalized to an extent, and China has a role to play in that regard, with the innuendo being that the West expects it to pressure Russia.
* The West Already Knows That A Compromise Of Some Sort Is Inevitable
The prior rhetoric about Ukraine’s maximum victory that characterized the first year and a half before its failed counteroffensive was conspicuously absent from Pavel’s interview and replaced with him explaining why a so-called “just peace” is an “illusion” in his words. He instead expects that “we will very likely be talking about Russia occupying a part of Ukrainian territory for a long time”, with the West’s aim only being for “Ukraine to liberate as much of its territory as possible” before peace talks resume.
* The West German Precedent For Joining NATO Could Be Applied To Ukraine
The most significant part of Pavel’s interview was when he explained how the West German precedent of joining NATO without first restoring control over the borders that it claims as its own could be applied towards Ukraine in the event that the conflict freezes. The only real difference that this would make after the slew of “security guarantees” that Ukraine reached with NATO states though is that it could – but wouldn’t automatically – lead to them dispatching troops if hostilities with Russia were to re-erupt.
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Pavel’s former high-ranking position in NATO imbues him with deep insight into Western military-strategic thinking, which is why his interview was worth reviewing. It wasn’t a surprise that he defended the Nord Stream bombing or expects the conflict to last a few more years, but few could have foreseen that he’d admit that a compromise is inevitable and then propose the West German precedent for Ukraine joining NATO. Russia must therefore be careful that future talks don’t make this a fait accompli.
