The predictable failure of the Swiss talks on Ukraine to resolve that country’s conflict presented China with an opportunity to lead an emerging Brazilian-fronted process based on their six-point consensus from late May for assembling a more workable framework ahead of November’s G20 Summit in Rio. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban just endorsed those points, and his shuttle diplomacy over the past week raises hopes that more countries will jump on board. Here are some background briefings:
* 4 June: “Non-Western Peace Processes For Ukraine”
* 20 June: “Switzerland Said That The Next Talks On Ukraine Will Be Much More Different Than The Last”
* 6 July: “Orban’s Mediation Mission In Moscow Could Set The Stage For Peace Talks By November’s G20”
* 7 July: “Orban Shared Some Detailed Insight Into His Mediation Efforts”
* 8 July: “Russia Is Unlikely To Heed China’s Latest Call For A Prompt Ceasefire”
It was within this context that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said during his visit to Moscow that his country is “ready to make any contribution” to ending the conflict. While it might seem like China and Brazil have already squeezed India out of this process, that’s actually not the case at all when remembering that India is the Voice of the Global South after hosting two such events during its G20 Chairmanship. It can therefore easily organize at least another online one about Ukraine if it wants to.
That would be in Delhi’s interests to do so since having as many fellow developing countries on the same page as possible ahead of any potentially Chinese-organized but Brazilian-fronted talks (whether before and/or during the G20) would ensure that India has a leading say in them. Although Sino-Indo ties remain tense over their unresolved border dispute, China’s Brazilian frontman is unlikely to snub India by not inviting it to any talks that it hosts since they’re both BRICS members, after all.
Accordingly, India would do well by preparing another Voice of Global South Summit for later this month (ideally in person but it could also be partially or only online depending on the attendees’ schedules), which could counteract the perception that China dominates the emerging non-Western peace process. By gathering as many Global South countries together in advance of whatever Brazil might soon host with China’s support, India can show the world that its opinion on this subject seriously matters.
Through these means, it’s possible that Ukraine and the West might agree to rely on India for mediating between Kiev and Moscow after Zelensky just said that this role can’t fall on Orban. In his words, “Only serious, strong alliances can act as go-betweens. Are there many such countries in the world? A few. I think the US is one. I think China, and the EU. Not just one country, but the entire European Union.” He didn’t mention it, but India is one such strong country, though he’s currently very upset at it.
Modi’s visit to Moscow incensed Zelensky, but at the end of the day, India is arguably the most agreeable country to mediate between Russia and Ukraine. The US can’t play that role, it doesn’t want to China to, and the EU is furious at Orban’s shuttle diplomacy, so India naturally emerges as the so-called “compromise candidate” who Russia, the US, the EU, and Ukraine could prospectively all agree upon. Zelensky himself even said last month that a mediator can help end the conflict so it’s not far-fetched.
For there to be any realistic chance of that happening, India must urgently organize another Voice of Global South event focused exclusively on this conflict in order to beat the Sino-Brazilian duopoly to the chase by getting everyone on the same page before those two organize their own such event about this. In that scenario, India would show the world that its opinion on this subject seriously matters, which could lead to Ukraine and the West agreeing to rely on it for mediating talks with Russia.
