Western-backed and Lithuanian-based Belarusian “opposition” leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya expressed her disapproval of the possibility that Poland might close all its border crossings with her country after Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski said on Sunday that it’s seriously being considered. His statement came amidst Warsaw’s claims that Belarus and Russia have weaponized illegal immigration against it, the subject of which was analyzed here in early June. Here’s what Tikhanovskaya tweeted about his words:
“Keeping Belarusians connected to Europe is crucial—their mobility must be assured. Initiatives to limit border traffic due to the regime’s ongoing provocations should target the dictator, not the people. We cannot abandon Belarusians to their fate behind a new iron curtain.”
And:
“Expanding direct contact between Belarusians & the people of Europe reduces Russia’s influence on our country. Together with effective sanctions & pressure on the Lukashenka regime, it is the best way to secure our free & democratic future. Isolate the regime, not the people!”
“At today’s meeting of the #Belarus-EU Consultative Group in Brussels, I emphasized that Belarusians must see the European perspective as the only alternative to the Russian world. It is crucial that Belarusians feel supported by Europe & know that Europe’s doors will be open.”
She’s right about how the complete closure of the Polish-Belarusian border would herald the creation of a new Iron Curtain, the military component of which was analyzed here in late May, but she’s being hypocritical with respect to not wanting to harm her own people. It was just last last that she called for the EU to close its sanctions loopholes with Belarus that were reportedly exploited to import wood from there. That would obviously harm average folks, not the so-called “regime”, yet she didn’t care.
What appears to have motivated her tweets over the past few days is the realization that Belarusians will sour even more on the West than most already have since the failed summer 2020 Color Revolution if the border is completely shut and they’re made to feel like outcasts. So long as it remains open, even if only partially, there’s always the chance of retaining Western soft power to an uncertain extent. Once it’s totally closed, however, all hope of winning hearts and minds will disappear in an instant.
She basically still favors punishing her own people for foiling the Color Revolution that was supposed to sweep her into power, but she believes that there should be limits to how far this goes. Collectively punishing them in such a blatant way by closing the border, which wouldn’t just deal a deathblow to the remaining trade between their states (and Poland’s with third parties like Kyrgyzstan) but also represent a psychological blow as well, is counterproductive from the perspective of Western soft power interests.
Poland might have already made its peace with the fact that it’ll never overthrow the Belarusian government no matter how hard it tries, in which case it might decide to cut its losses by closing the border in order to improve public opinion at home amidst the latest stage of the illegal immigrant crisis. It doesn’t matter that these civilizationally dissimilar people aren’t entering Poland via official border crossings since all that would be important in this context is making it look like something is being done.
The earlier reimposition of a so-called “buffer/exclusion zone” along parts of the frontier was a tangible step in that direction while this latest proposal would be a symbolic one to complement it. Nevertheless, there’s always the possibility that the US might pressure Poland into reconsidering this drastic step “for the greater good” of their collective interests, in which case Warsaw would likely comply. If it still goes through with it, however, then that would be an unexpected signal of displeasure with its top ally.
