Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,
Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden according to Nate Cohn at the New York Times.
A Surge in Discontent With Biden
Please consider Trump Leads in 5 Key States by Nate Cohn.
The surveys by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer found that Mr. Trump was ahead among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup against Mr. Biden in five of six key states: Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden led among registered voters in only one battleground state, Wisconsin.
The race was closer among likely voters. Mr. Trump led in five states as well, but Mr. Biden edged ahead in Michigan while trailing only narrowly in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
The results were similar in a hypothetical matchup that included minor-party candidates and the independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who won an average of 10 percent of the vote across the six states and drew roughly equally from the two major-party candidates.
Nearly 70 percent of voters say that the country’s political and economic systems need major changes — or even to be torn down entirely.
Only a sliver of Mr. Biden’s supporters — just 13 percent — believe that the president would bring major changes in his second term, while even many of those who dislike Mr. Trump grudgingly acknowledge that he would shake up an unsatisfying status quo.
The sense that Mr. Biden would do little to improve the nation’s fortunes has helped erode his standing among young, Black and Hispanic voters, who usually represent the foundation of any Democratic path to the presidency. The Times/Siena polls found that the three groups wanted fundamental changes to American society, not just a return to normalcy, and few believed that Mr. Biden would make even minor changes that would be good for the country.
Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are essentially tied among 18-to-29-year-olds and Hispanic voters, even though each group gave Mr. Biden more than 60 percent of their vote in 2020. Mr. Trump also wins more than 20 percent of Black voters — a tally that would be the highest level of Black support for any Republican presidential candidate since the enactment of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
The economy and the cost of living, however, remain the most important issues for one-quarter of voters — and a significant drag on Mr. Biden’s prospects. More than half of voters still believe that the economy is “poor,” down merely a single percentage point since November despite cooling inflation, an end to rate hikes and significant stock market gains.
Goodness Gracious
A CNN analyst was SHOCKED that a new poll from NYT found Trump up double digits in Nevada, 9 in Georgia
“My goodness gracious, my God. That is a huge lead. No Democrat has lost that state since John Kerry.” https://t.co/VHfFtcpxXb
— Brendon Leslie (@BrendonLeslie) May 13, 2024
“My goodness gracious, my God. That is a huge lead. No Democrat has lost that state since John Kerry.”
I believe it’s time for a musical tribute interlude.
We now return to our regularly scheduled program.
Emmerson College Polling
Emmerson College reports Trump Holds Edge Over Biden in Seven Key Swing State Polls
In Arizona, Trump leads by four points: 48% to 44%; 8% are undecided. In Georgia, 47% support Trump, 44% Biden, and 9% are undecided. In Michigan, 45% support Trump, 44% Biden, and 11% are undecided. In Nevada, 45% support Trump and 44% support Biden, while 11% are undecided. In North Carolina, 47% support Trump, and 42% Biden; 10% are undecided. In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, 47% support Trump, 45% Biden, and 8% are undecided.
“Independent voters break for Trump over Biden in Arizona (48%-38%), Michigan (44%-35%), Nevada (43%-37%), Pennsylvania (49%-33%), and North Carolina (41%-38%). However they break for Biden over Trump in Georgia (42%-38%) and Wisconsin (44%-41%),” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted.
When third-party candidates are included on the ballot, support is pulled away from Biden more than Trump in five states: Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Support is drawn evenly from each candidate in Arizona and Michigan.
Impact of a Guilty Verdict on Independent Voters’ Likelihood to Support Trump
- AZ: 32% more likely, 25% less likely, 43% no impact
- GA: 26% more likely, 32% less likely, 42% no impact
- MI: 26% more likely, 30% less likely, 45% no impact
- NC: 32% more likely, 25% less likely, 43% no impact
- NV: 25% more likely, 32% less likely, 43% no impact
- PA: 31% more likely, 24% less likely, 45% no impact
- WI: 24% more likely, 30% less likely, 47% no impact
Hoot of the Day
Independents in Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania say a conviction would make it more likely they voted for Trump.
What a hoot!
That’s how much of a farce the trial is.
Biden’s Excuse for Bad Polls
If you need another hoot, I can help. Please note the White House blames the pandemic and Russia for Biden’s dismal swing state poll numbers.
Peter Doocy: “Why do you think Americans are so down on President Biden right now? I know you don’t like to talk about polls, like the five of six swing states that he is losing right now to somebody who is a criminal defendant, but, more broadly, it doesn’t seem like anything… pic.twitter.com/7YovAnxG01
— Julia 🇺🇸 (@Jules31415) May 14, 2024
Biden Challenges Trump to a Debate
“Make my day” said Biden to Trump in a Tweet, challenging Trump to a debate. Two debates are set. Trump seeks two more. What just happened?
I discussed the debate on May 15 in Biden Challenges Trump to a Debate, Trump Accepts, Advantage Whom?
What Just Happened?
Biden is so far behind in the swing state polls, that he needs to win these debate. If Biden was far ahead, it’s highly doubtful that he would go on stage for more than a short debate, and one as late as possible.
Trump cannot turn it down, so he upped the ante to four.
Winning two out of two for Biden will be hard enough. But if Biden flunks the first two he will want more.
Biden’s Extremely Big Bet
Even the Washington Post can spot Biden’s desperation.
Please consider Biden’s Extremely Big Bet
The last time the U.S. presidential election was a rematch of the previous election, Dwight D. Eisenhower smashed Democrat Adlai Stevenson into little pieces (figuratively), as he had four years before. This rematch promises to follow that pattern, not in outcome but in similarity. In 2020, Biden won as a function of narrow victories in a handful of battleground states (though he won the popular vote much more handily). This year’s outcome, by all appearances, will be even more narrowly determined.
If Biden wants to bring younger voters back into the fold, he’s got another problem. Polling shows that they prioritize the same issues as Americans overall, meaning primarily economic ones on which Trump is more favorably positioned.
Important Issues 18-29 Year-Olds
Top Issues
Two of the top three issues are inflation and housing. They are very related. Rent has gone up at least 0.4 percent for 32 months, nearly three years.
Home prices are at record highs and mortgage rates are above 7.0 percent making housing very unaffordable for those who want to buy a home.
New York Times Swing State Poll Detail
The Shocker
18-29 year-olds turned out en masse for Biden four years ago. Trump now leads age groups 18-29 and 30-44.
And it’s not just the youth vote. According to Pew, Biden captured 92 percent of the black vote in 2020. Now it’s 49-14-11 (Biden, Trump, Kennedy).
If these percentages hold, Trump is going to win every swing state plus a few more not yet presumed to be in the ballpark.
Spotlight Blacks
On April 12, the Kansas Reflector commented on Black Support for Biden.
Black voters overwhelmingly supported President Joe Biden in 2020 and were key to his win, but there is some evidence that Black voter enthusiasm for Biden may be slipping. And Trump is hoping to capitalize on that. He spoke last month at a meeting of the Black Conservative Federation and he argues that Black voters were better off financially when he was in office. Even if Black voters don’t buy that message, voters’ frustration could result in them turning to a third party candidate, Cornell Belcher, a pollster who worked for Barack Obama, told The New York Times.
To counter Trump, the Biden campaign is spending millions on radio ads in swing states at Black-owned and Latino-owned radio stations to point out the administration’s accomplishments, including investments in historically Black colleges and universities through grant funding and the American Rescue Plan Act, the cancellation of student loan debt for 3.9 million borrowers, and reducing Black child poverty in 2021, which it has connected to the then expansion of the child tax credit.
In March of last year, Black people’s unemployment rate hit a record low and the economic recovery shows that by historical standards, Black and Hispanic workers have had faster wage growth these past few years. The unemployment rate for Black people has begun to tick up again, but economists say they’re waiting for more data before considering it a long lasting trend.
But Melanie Campbell, president of the National Coalition on Black Civic Participation, said the unemployment rate for Black Americans does not tell the whole story. “The other part of that message has to do with, ‘OK, I may be employed but I’m still working three jobs just to pay my rent,’” she said.
Sarah Wallace, 49, a Philadephian who lives on Social Security Disability Insurance, says she has to spend the lion’s share of it on $1,500 in rent each month. She voted for Biden in 2020, but said she may vote third party this time.
“I think Biden sold all of us on his dream to get into the office … And that was that,” she said.
Generational Homeownership Rates
Home ownership rates courtesy of Apartment List
People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election
On April 20, before the latest polls, and before I found the above Kansas Reflector post, I commented People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election
Immigration won’t decide the election. Polls have not yet captured what will. This may come as a surprise, but the top issue housing. More explicitly, it’s shelter costs.
Who Are the Renters?
The answer is younger voters and blacks.
The Apartment List 2023 Millennial Homeownership Report shows Millennial homeownership seriously lags other generations.
Generation Z homeownership is dramatically lower still.
And according to the National Association of Realtors, the homeownership rate among Black Americans is 44 percent whereas for White Americans it’s 72.7 percent.
That’s the largest Black-White homeownership rate gap in a decade.
Young voters are angry about rent, angry over home prices, and angry over mortgage rates. That is reflected in the polls.
Economists still don’t get it. They think the economy is doing great.
If you are an asset holder, the economy might seem great (see Dear Jerome Powell, Is Everything Under Control? Spotlight Gold and Silver).
But the 36 percent of people who rent, mainly young voters and blacks, see things differently. And they will decide the election, for Trump, if the polls stay anywhere close to where they are.
