The UK’s Daily Express reported on Monday that Sergey Karaganov was commissioned to carry out eight studies this year. He’s a deeply respected and highly influential intellectual who serves as the honorary chairman of Russia’s powerful Council on Foreign and Defense Policy and is also an academic supervisor at the Higher School of Economics’ School of International Economics and Foreign Affairs. He became infamous in the West last summer for proposing that Russia preemptively nuke Europe to deter the US.
The aforementioned latest report about his newly commissioned studies is actually a month old and comes from the Russian-banned Meduza News outlet, which first published this claim in early April here. The utmost caution should therefore be advised when assessing the accuracy of their reports, but if there’s any truth to two of these supposed studies being about Pakistan, then it would say a lot about Russia’s intra-elite dynamics at this pivotal moment in the formulation of its multipolar grand strategy.
Meduza News alleged that one of the studies concerns an “Assessment of the experience of development of the military-industrial complex in a number of leading countries of the World Majority (China, India, Pakistan, Malaysia, Egypt, etc.)”, while the other involves a “Dialogue on developing a new concept of nuclear deterrence in the quadrilateral Russia-China-India-Pakistan format.” The possibility that state resources might fund such studies about Pakistan would be a milestone in bilateral ties if true.
It would also show that Russia’s emerging pro-BRI faction has gained tremendous ground over its established balancing one, the dynamics of which require further elaboration since many aren’t aware of them. This analysis here from late April explains that the first believes that a return to Sino-US bi-multipolarity is inevitable and therefore wants to accelerate China’s superpower trajectory as revenge for everything that the US did since 2022, The second, meanwhile, wants to maintain the present course.
The balancers fear that implementing the pro-BRI faction’s envisaged policies could lead to potentially disproportionate dependence on China that could reduce their country’s sovereignty with time by inertia. They’re also afraid that any significant moves towards China and its Pakistani ally could empower India’s pro-US faction by spooking its established balancing one into pivoting towards America and thus making bi-multipolarity a fait accompli despite both of these strategic partners wanting to avoid it.
The previously mentioned reportedly commissioned study into Pakistan’s military-industrial complex hints that the pro-BRI faction is exploring a flagship arms deal with that country. The motives wouldn’t just be monetary to partially compensate for recently reduced exports to India, but to reward Pakistan for not voting against it at the UNGA. Complementary interests could also be to signal further support for China, deter India from improving its ties with the US, and drive a wedge in US-Pakistani relations.
The other one about exploring a quadrilateral Russia-China-India-Pakistan nuclear deterrence concept might be meant to bring these nuclear-armed powers closer together with the intent of preventing the US from driving more wedges between some of them. The assumption is that Russia is the only player capable of helping to alleviate China and Pakistan’s security dilemmas with India that risk dividing-and-ruling Asia to the US’ hegemonic benefit from Moscow’s perspective if they continue to worsen.
For as well-intentioned as these two reportedly commissioned studies might be, and readers should remember that their existence shouldn’t be taken for granted due to Meduza News’ status as a Russian-designed foreign agent, they risk inadvertently provoking suspicion from India if true. India would feel betrayed by Russia if it clinched a flagship arms deal with Pakistan, and its security dilemmas with China and Pakistan mean that it would feel offended if Russia suggested multilateral nuclear cooperation.
If deeply respected and highly influential Karaganov was indeed commissioned to carry out those two studies, India would certainly interpret that as signaling a sea change in Russia’s intra-elite dynamics in favor of the emerging pro-BRI faction at the expense of the established pro-Indian balancing one. There wouldn’t be a tangible reaction from India unless Russia tangibly moved in the direction of implementing the proposals from those two studies, but their very existence would still be a shock for India if proven.
