Russian Presidential Aide Yury Ushakov revealed in an interview with TASS last week that his country plans to extend invitations to the leaders of the CIS, Eurasian Economic Union, and the SCO to attend the “Outreach”/“BRICS Plus” Summit during the association’s annual one in Kazan in October. This is part of Russia’s plan to transform BRICS into a multipolar discussion club and economic integration platform. The problem is that India might still be offended by Pakistan’s participation and could boycott in protest.
It was already suggested that “Russia’s ‘Outreach’/’BRICS Plus’ Invite To Pakistan Shouldn’t Ruffle India’s Feathers” since “Russia Will Only Extend Perfunctory Support For Pakistan’s Membership In BRICS”. Although bilateral relations are better than ever, they’re incomparable with Russian-Indian ones. The Intercept’s report last September that Pakistan had indirectly supplied shells to Ukraine and the latest concerns that it’s now providing armed drones too also cast a pallor over Moscow’s ties with Islamabad.
Furthermore, Pakistan’s post-modern coup regime that came to power after April 2022’s ouster of former multipolar Prime Minister Imran Khan has dillydallied on reaching a long-negotiated strategic energy deal with Russia, which has caused major annoyance in the Kremlin. Even so, these issues haven’t led to a worsening of ties, which their new ambassadors remain committed to expanding. They aren’t aimed against anyone else either so in theory there shouldn’t be any objection from India.
Former Indian Ambassador to Russia and incumbent Chancellor of Jawaharlal Nehru University Kanwal Sibal, who’s widely regarded as his country’s top expert on Russia, sees the situation very differently. He tweeted on Thursday that “China is backing Pak as BRICS member. India must firmly oppose not only this but any form of association. Leaving aside Pak’s ineligibility bcoz of its pol & eco drift, China must be rebuffed as payback for its opposition to India’s NSG membership & UN listing of Pak terrorists.”
Although no longer a serving diplomat, Ambassador Sibal’s insight on all matters concerning Russia is still relied upon by Indian policymakers for guidance. He’s also fondly remembered during his time of service in Russia as a close friend, is a contributor to RT, and his views are also taken seriously by policymakers there too. It’s in light of his tweet that Russia should possibly reconsider inviting Pakistan to participate in “Outreach”/“BRICS Plus” since this decision might not have been thought fully through.
As was already explained, both in the present text and the earlier cited piece on this subject, there isn’t anything troublesome about this in principle. Russia envisages BRICS transforming into a multipolar discussion club and economic integration platform, ties with Pakistan are better than ever despite the previously mentioned issues, and that South Asian state is already an SCO member alongside India. It therefore makes sense from that perspective for Russia to invite Pakistan to participate in this summit.
The wisdom of doing so becomes questionable, however, once the actual realities of BRICS, South Asian geopolitics, and Russia’s Sino-Indo balancing act are incorporated into this decision. The recent Sino-Indo rivalry and well-known tensions between India and Pakistan understandably impede multilateral efforts to accelerate the construction of a Multipolar World Order like they’re all officially interested in doing. It’s unimportant who the reader believes is to blame for this state of affairs since it’s the objective reality.
From India’s perspective, BRICS is at risk of Chinese domination due to Beijing being each member’s top trade partner, in which case multipolar processes might revert to bi-multipolar ones and thus risk a global Sino-US bifurcation at the expense of everyone else’s sovereignty if that comes to pass. China and Pakistan, meanwhile, have occasionally suggested via their media reports and commentary by friendly social media figures that India is the US’ “Trojan Horse” for dividing-and-ruling BRICS.
Russia’s approach as suggested by Ushakov is the most idealistic of all since it sincerely thinks that these mutual suspicions can be overcome in BRICS just like they were in the SCO. Ambassador Sibal’s tweet, however, hints that this is wishful thinking of the sort that President Putin cautioned his strategic forecasters against indulging in during a speech at the Foreign Intelligence Service in June 2022. The risks of inviting Pakistan to this year’s summit arguably outweigh the benefits as will now be explained.
For starters, the “politics of affection” between Russia and India that have kept ties solid over the past two years despite unprecedented Western pressure upon Delhi to distance itself from Moscow could be damaged if Russia became the first country to invite Pakistan to “Outreach”/ “BRICS Plus”. Their mutual goodwill towards one another that’s prevalent among policymakers and society alike is premised on the fact that neither has ever done anything against the other’s national interests throughout their history.
Even though Pakistan would only be invited to the “Outreach”/“BRICS Plus” Summit as part of the SCO per Ushakov’s plan, it would still shock Indians after China didn’t invite its “iron brother” to the same such event in 2022 when it virtually hosted that year’s summit, which was reportedly at India’s request. Pakistan’s conspicuous lack of participation occurred despite increasingly tense Sino-Indo ties and suggested that Beijing didn’t want Prime Minister Narendra Modi to boycott in protest.
Likewise, it can’t be ruled out that he might claim to be “too busy” or that “something has come up” as his “publicly plausible” explanation for skipping October’s Kazan Summit if Russia invited Pakistan despite India’s request not to, thus scandalizing their ties and risking a rupture within BRICS. To be clear, this scenario wouldn’t be supposed “proof” of India’s “Trojan Horse” role that China and Pakistan have claimed that it’s playing, but would be a natural diplomatic response to perceived disrespect.
After all, India respected Russia’s speculative request not to invite Ukraine to last year’s G20 Summit that it hosted despite immense Western pressure for Zelensky to at least appear by video, only to possibly be “thanked” by Russia inviting its Pakistani rival to this year’s “Outreach”/“BRICS Plus” Summit. India’s predictable reaction of boycotting the event in protest on a diplomatic pretext is exactly what China would probably do if Russia invited the Philippines with whom it’s also now in a tense dispute.
Russia’s ties with the Philippines are surprisingly strong despite Western influence over Manila, so much so that it recently approved India exporting jointly produced supersonic cruise missiles to this island nation even though the only country that they could foreseeably be used against is China. President Xi Jinping obviously wouldn’t feel comfortable if his Philippine counterpart was invited to Kazan as part of a blanket invitation to all ASEAN leaders for example and would thus likely boycott in that scenario.
China is a more important partner for Russia than the Philippines is just like India is more important for it than Pakistan is, so if Moscow wouldn’t risk offending Beijing by inviting the Philippine leader, then it follows that Moscow shouldn’t risk offending Delhi by inviting the Pakistani one. Cliched talking points aside about all countries being considered by the RIC core of BRICS as equals and third parties’ sensitivities not influencing any of their bilateral relations, the reality is altogether different in practice.
Sensitive balancing acts and the “politics of affection” sometimes result in the formulation of policies that contradict those aforesaid points for the “greater good”. With this candid observation in mind, it’s advisable that Russia considers quietly walking back Ushakov’s announcement about inviting the SCO leaders to the “Outreach”/“BRICS Plus” Summit in favor of only inviting the CIS ones. This would avoid inadvertently harming ties with India, risking the boycott scenario, and therefore rupturing BRICS.
