The sparsely populated, mineral-rich, and geographically enormous Pakistani Province of Balochistan was back in the news in late October for three reasons. First, the Balochistan Liberation Front carried out an attack on a camp in the port town of Gwadar, which is the southern anchor of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that functions as the Belt & Road Initiative’s flagship megaproject. Gwadar has been attacked many times before, and each time, concerns continue growing about CPEC’s viability.
The second related reason was former US Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad, who still influences the regional discourse, referencing earlier reports about Pakistan arming Afghans to fight the Taliban and anti-Pakistani groups like Baloch separatists that Islamabad denies. And finally, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported that Balochistan has become the “core” of opium cultivation after the Taliban banned it upon their return to power, which has very serious implications.
The CIA has long been suspected of having a hand in the global opium trade since it’s a relatively easy means of funding various projects off the books with no accountability to the rest of the US Government. In this particular context, the US might either be working hand-in-hand with the Pakistani Establishment – its powerful military and intelligence services that really run the country – on opium cultivation in Balochistan or at minimum turning a blind eye to the latter’s role therein, all in pursuit of mutual goals.
These goals are assessed as being threefold and interconnected: 1) fund anti-Taliban groups in Pakistan through the global opium trade (in which some former members of the Afghan Armed Forces are known to have direct experience); 2) set these groups loose against Baloch separatists, the “Pakistani Taliban” (TTP), and other allegedly Taliban-backed anti-Pakistani groups in order to gain much-needed combat experience; and 3) then have them cross the border a la Turkiye’s Syrian rebel strategy from 2011-2024.
The New York Times cited a Pakistani intelligence official and former national security one to recently report that the Establishment has already “met with leaders of anti-Taliban armed groups in recent months to offer potential support”. Their regime change goal would facilitate Trump’s explicitly declared objective of returning US troops to Bagram Airbase and his suspected one of exploiting Afghanistan’s $1 trillion mineral reserves if successful. It’s therefore unbelievable that the CIA isn’t involved in this plot.
Given the bloody track record of CIA proxies, the Establishment’s infamous heavy–handedness in responding to even peaceful expressions of dissent by local Baloch, and the former Afghan National Army’s well-known crimes, these new groups likely function as death squads. While no massacres have been reported, this doesn’t mean that they haven’t happened or might not soon happen, with Balochistan’s limited internet and Pakistani censorship making it difficult for any such reports to get out.
Going forward, international media should investigate the nexus between the CIA, Pakistan’s new status as the “core” of opium cultivation, and Pakistan’s reported recruitment of Afghans for use against the Taliban and anti-Pakistani groups like Baloch separatists. From the looks of it, these are likely death squads, and they might also form the tip of the spear of any future Pakistani invasion of Afghanistan. The Afghan-Pakistani War, which shows no end in sight, might therefore radically intensify in the future.
