The bloodbath that the Republicans just suffered risks repeating itself in 2028 unless Trump reduces the cost of living that spiked over the past year due to the Third Gulf War. It was earlier advised that “Trump Must Curtail Energy Exports To Europe If MAGA Is To Have Any Chance In 2028” since redirecting them to the domestic market would more quickly lower fuel prices to this end. Resolving the Third Gulf War and the Ukrainian Conflict are also important for gradually restoring stability to the global energy market.
Even in the best-case scenario that all three happen by early 2027 with a meaningful reduction in fuel prices across the next year that in turn reduces the cost of living ahead of 2028, however, that could all be for naught if China initiates another round of their trade war before the next elections. Xi might calculate that he could blackmail Trump into major concessions that the latter could agree to out of desperation to give MAGA a fighting chance at survival instead of guarantee its decimation in 2028.
From China’s perspective, a Democrat president could be relatively better for it than another Republican one given the Democrats’ relative softness towards China and prioritization of Russia’s containment over China’s, so the abovementioned scenario is sensible and thus realistic. Essentially, the future of MAGA therefore depends on Trump cutting grand deals with Russia, Iran, and China in order to lower the cost of living before the next elections and ensure that none of them do anything to spike it before then.
This can only be achieved through a series of mutual compromises that advance some of their most sensitive interests. If they’re unsatisfied with the grand deals on offer, then they might reject them in the hopes that better terms will then be proposed otherwise they’ll help sweep MAGA into the dustbin of history by doing whatever it may be to keep Americans’ cost of living high, which all three are capable of doing. Trump knows this so he might be willing to play ball for the sake of a potential MAGA comeback.
Russia could curtail energy exports to prioritize the domestic market amidst continued Ukrainian attacks against its refineries at the cost of further raising global fuel prices, Iran can continue its imperfect blockade of the strait to the same end, while China could initiate another round of their trade war. To avert these scenarios, the US would have to advance their respective interests in Ukraine, the Gulf, and Taiwan in a foreign policy revolution that would fundamentally reshape the emerging world order.
The post-war European security and economic architectures detailed here represent the most realistic compromises for advancing some of Russia’s most sensitive interests to avert the scenario above. As for Iran, the US would have to lift its energy-related sanctions, militarily withdraw from the Gulf, and make it clear that it wouldn’t intervene in Israel’s support if Israel initiates another war with Iran. Regarding China, the US would have to completely cut off Taiwan, thus leading to its return to the Mainland.
The Russian aspect of this proposal is already reportedly in the works, but while the US has flirted with the Iranian one, it’s less clear whether Trump has the political will to pursue it. He’s also criticized Taiwan for stealing the US’ chip industry, but he might lack the political will to de facto cede it to China. Be that as it may, Trump might ultimately agree to all of this if he’s convinced that it’s the only way to save MAGA and therefore preserve his legacy, which would then indisputably be as a global peacemaker.
