The scenario of Pakistan arming Ukraine is swirling on social media amidst the infowar against Russia that’s being waged by Pakistani trolls over Russia’s potential arming of the Taliban against ISIS-K. A fake news report alleging that India is financing the Taliban’s purchase of Belarusian drones with Russia’s approval was exploited as the pretext for this campaign, which claims that Russia is arming the Taliban against Pakistan. These Pakistani trolls are now agitating for their country to arm Ukraine “in revenge”.
All of them support their Establishment, which refers to the powerful military and intelligence agencies that really run Pakistan, and some of the larger accounts have long been suspected of being linked to it. Pakistan’s hypothetical arming of Ukraine wouldn’t change the conflict’s dynamics, however, and could even inadvertently lead to a rift with its American patron. Before elaborating any further, a brief backgrounder is required to bring unaware readers up to speed on this subject.
The Intercept reported in September 2023 that Pakistan agreed to sell $900 million worth of arms to Ukraine the year prior shortly after April 2022’s post-modern coup against former multipolar Prime Minister Imran Khan in exchange for American support in receiving another IMF bailout. Two months later in November 2023, BBC Urdu published a detailed report citing public documents to claim that Pakistan sold $364 worth of shells to two US private military companies that then sent them to Ukraine.
Pakistan has consistently denied these claims, and the Russian Ambassador to Pakistan declared in March 2025 that “We have not found any proof of Pakistani arms supplies in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. All such claims are baseless.” His statement on the matter might have been meant to retain the overall positive momentum in bilateral relations amid years-long talks on a major oil deal over which the US is thought by some to have obtained de facto veto power after April 2022’s post-modern coup.
This isn’t baseless speculation since Russia turns a blind eye to China’s drone-related sales to Ukraine that greatly contributed to perpetuating the conflict till the present. It also hasn’t (at least not yet?) let Turkiye’s arms sales to Ukraine harm bilateral relations either. Therefore, it’s reasonable that Russia might have turned a blind eye to prior Pakistani arms sales to Ukraine, especially if they were perceived as being done “under duress” due to the combination of economic pressure and US demands.
If Pakistan resumes its suspected arms sales to Ukraine, then bilateral ties will suffer as Russia’s threat perception of Pakistan piques, but the conflict’s dynamics won’t change since Putin is poised to bring Ukraine to its knees by wintertime through systematic strikes against its infrastructure. Trump also recently turned on Zelensky after Zelensky refused to cut a deal with Putin, the reported details of which were analyzed here, and Trump is now pursuing a resource-centric strategic partnership with Putin.
Accordingly, Pakistan’s hypothetical arming of Ukraine could be interpreted by Trump as a snub aimed at further perpetuating the conflict despite his recent efforts to bring it to an end, thus risking his ire with all that could entail for bilateral ties given his capriciousness. For that reason, while those elements of the Pakistani Establishment that are more under the influence of the UK and Trump’s “deep state” foes might consider arming Ukraine if Russia arms the Taliban, they’d do well to think twice before they do.
