The leaders of Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, and Somalia pledged to comprehensively strengthen their relations, including through quadrilateral coordination in the broader region, in the El-Alamein Joint Declaration that they signed after their latest summit. This is being widely interpreted as aimed against Ethiopia after federal forces retook control of the rebellious Tigray Region’s capital in the Second Northern Conflict that just broke out and which Addis accused Egypt, Sudan, and Eritrea of sparking via their proxies.
Ethiopia and Eritrea have also cut diplomatic ties, the US State Department expressed concern about their escalating military tensions, and unconfirmed reports just began circulating on social media alleging that Eritrean forces are flooding into the remaining rebel-held regions of Tigray. Amidst these developments, some Ethiopians have called for federal forces to “cut the head off the snake” by overthrowing Eritrea’s three-decade-long leader due to his state’s patronage of the new rebel alliance.
Ethiopia believes that Egypt is, arming, funding, and organizing Eritrea’s Hybrid War against it, which could include more direct involvement from Sudan and Somalia as well. Sudan accuses Ethiopia of backing RSF rebels, claims that Addis has always denied, while Somalia resents the 2024 MoU that Ethiopia signed with de facto independent Somaliland, which Mogadishu still lays claim to. Egypt is their top military backer, and its ~1,000–15,000 troops in Somalia could also hypothetically threaten Ethiopia.
The stage is therefore set for a regional war, one in which Ethiopia’s close Emirati and Israeli partners could become involved in too, both in support of Ethiopia but also Somaliland if it too is threatened. Unlike the unofficial quadrilateral alliance that was recently solidified in Egypt, which built upon the late 2024 trilateral one that Cairo clinched with Eritrea and Somalia, no platform has yet to be established for coordinating between Ethiopia, the UAE, Israel, and Somaliland, though a future one can’t be ruled out.
Israel is the only state to recognize Somaliland, which this piece here argues was partly due to its rivalry with Turkiye, whose influence in Somalia rivals Egypt’s. Meanwhile, the UAE has invested in Somaliland’s connectivity infrastructure, which some suspect is used to arm the RSF via Ethiopia (and thenceforth via South Sudan in some cases) despite all parties’ denials. Ethiopia’s hypothetical defeat and consequent “Balkanization” could also make Egypt an Arab superpower to Israel and the UAE’s strategic detriment.
It’s therefore in their interests to avert that scenario, ergo the likelihood of them intervening to an unclear extent in the event that Egypt’s newly expanded alliance that now importantly includes the battle-hardened Sudanese Armed Forces triggers an all-out war on Ethiopia. Ethiopia’s continued existence is indispensable to Israeli security since Egypt’s exploitation of a “Balkanized” Ethiopia’s natural resource wealth could eventually empower it to become an existential threat to Israel (once again).
The broader region is therefore on the precipice of a major war that could rekindle Egyptian-Israeli hostilities in the worst-case scenario, not to mention destroy the lives of the Horn’s 150+ million people, if a diplomatic solution isn’t soon found. Egypt’s power play for Arab superpower status, which it expects to receive sometime after what it believes will be Ethiopia’s inevitable “Balkanization” brought about by the major war that Egypt is masterminding, is responsible for all the horrors that might soon follow.
