The Polish conservative opposition’s grey cardinal Jarosław Kaczyński claimed over the weekend that “I think [the Ukrainians] initially had a somewhat strange idea that they would drag us into this war, even on the basis of creating a single state. Zelensky’s speech in the Sejm was precisely in that direction.” Zelensky’s virtual speech from early March 2022 can be read in full here. It notably mentions a joint historical mission to save Europe from Russia and scandalously declares that “we have already united”.
Kaczyński’s claim echoes former conservative President Andrzej Duda’s from September 2025 shortly after he left office. He revealed at the time that “They’ve been trying to drag everyone into the war from the very beginning. It’s obvious, it’s in their interest, and it would be best if they could drag NATO countries into the war. It’s obvious they’re looking for those who would actively fight on their side against the Russians. This has been happening since day one.”
Two months later, Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski from the Lewica (“Left”) wing of the ruling liberal coalition had this to say: “Zelensky wants Poland to shoot missiles over Ukraine, which means he wants Poland to enter the war, which means he wants Poland to be at war with Russia. In these statements, Zelensky wants to drag Poland into the war with Russia. I do not agree with such statements.” Nothing has changed since Zelensky still wants that and the ruling coalition does too.
Their Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski called in September 2024 for Poland to intercept Russian projectiles over Ukraine, and one year later in September 2025 in the same month that Duda shared his abovementioned revelation, he called for a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Just last week, he claimed that “Russia is at war with Europe” while he and liberal Prime Minister Donald Tusk fearmongered about a supposedly impending Russian strike against Poland that might even be imminent.
This analysis here argues that any such strike would probably be a Ukrainian false flag provocation to implicate Russia for the purpose of manipulating President Karol Nawrocki, the ruling liberal coalition’s conservative rival, into authorizing Sikorski’s proposals at the credible risk of all-out war with Russia. As a reminder, “Ukraine Tried To Trick NATO Into Starting World War III After It Accidentally Bombed Poland” in November 2022 and lied that it was Russia, but commander-in-chief Duda didn’t take the bait.
The background that was shared in the analysis up till this point contextualizes Kaczyński’s claim that Ukraine tried to drag Poland into war with Russia since the timing strongly suggests that he’s signaling to Nawrocki’s shared conservative base that Ukraine is once again seeking the same as explained. Back in 2022, the President and Prime Minister were conservatives so Ukraine’s plot failed, but now the liberal premier might lend false credence to a Ukrainian false flag in order to manipulate his conservative rival.
The odds of that happening were already low, but they’re now even lower after Nawrocki’s grey cardinal just reminded the public that Ukraine earlier tried to drag Poland into war with Russia. It would arguably have been better had he said that it’s still seeking to do so just like the ruling liberal coalition is as well, but perhaps he wanted to preempt smears of “covering up for a Russian attack”. In any case, his claim was important, and it implies that any provocation will be closely scrutinized before Nawrocki responds.
